2016年米国大統領選挙
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選挙人団の538人のメンバーが 勝つために必要な270の選挙人票 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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世論調査 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
消す | 55.7%[1] ![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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大統領選挙の結果マップ。赤はトランプ/ペンス(R)が勝った州を示し、青はクリントン/ケイン(D)が勝った州を示します。数字は、各州およびコロンビア特別区が投じた選挙人票を示しています。選挙の夜、トランプは306人の選挙人とクリントン232を獲得しました。しかし、7人の不誠実な選挙人(5人の民主党と2人の共和党)のために、トランプはクリントンの227に対してわずか304票を獲得しました。 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() 2016年米国大統領選挙 | |
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共和党 | |
民主党 | |
第三者 | |
関連レース | |
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2016年の米国大統領選挙は、2016年11月8日火曜日に開催された第58回年次大統領選挙でした。ビジネスマンのドナルドトランプとインディアナ州知事のマイクペンスの共和党のチケットは、元国務長官のヒラリークリントンとバージニア州の米国上院議員の民主党のチケットを破りましたティム・ケイン、アメリカの歴史の中で最大の動揺の1つと考えられていたもの。トランプが第45代大統領に就任し、ペンスが第48代副大統領に就任した。 、2017年1月20日。当選候補者が人気投票を失ったのは5回目で最近の大統領選挙でした。[2] [3]
アメリカ合衆国憲法修正第22条により、現職のバラク・オバマ大統領は3期目を求める資格がありませんでした。クリントンは、民主党の初等協会で自称民主社会主義上院議員バーニー・サンダースを破り、アメリカの主要政党の最初の女性大統領候補になりました。トランプは、共和党予備選挙でテッド・クルーズ上院議員、マルコ・ルビオ上院議員、オハイオ州知事ジョン・ケーシックを破った幅広い候補者の中で、党の最有力候補として浮上した。 Theリバタリアン党 は元ニューメキシコ州知事のゲーリー・ジョンソンを指名し、緑の党はジル・スタインを指名した。 「アメリカを再び偉大にする」ことを約束し、政治的正しさ、不法移民、および多くの米国の自由貿易協定[4]に反対したトランプの右翼ポピュリスト国家主義キャンペーンは、トランプの扇動的なコメントのために広範な無料メディア報道を獲得しました。 [5] [6]クリントンは彼女の広範な政治的経験を強調し、トランプと彼の支持者の多くを「 嘆かわしいもののバスケット」、偏見と過激派、そしてオバマ大統領の政策の拡大を提唱しました;人種、LGBT、そして女性の権利;そして包括的資本主義。[7]
総選挙キャンペーンの調子は、分裂的で否定的なものとして広く特徴づけられました。[8] [9] [10]トランプは、人種と移民に関する彼の見解、集会での抗議者に対する暴力事件、 [11] [12] [13] 、およびアクセスハリウッドテープを含む多数の性的違法行為の申し立てについて論争に直面した。クリントンの人気と一般のイメージは、彼女の倫理と信頼性に関する懸念[14]と、プライベート電子メールサーバーの不適切な使用に関する論争とその後のFBI調査によって損なわれました。国務長官を務めている間、キャンペーン中に他のどのトピックよりも多くのメディア報道を受けました。[15] [16]
クリントンは、ほぼすべての全国およびスウィングステートの世論調査を主導し、一部の専門家は地滑りを予測した[17]が、選挙が近づくにつれて彼女のマージンは減少した。選挙の日、トランプは投票を上回り、いくつかの主要なスウィングステートを獲得しましたが、人気投票を287万票失いました。[18]トランプは選挙人団で過半数を獲得し、重要なラストベルト地域で動揺した勝利を勝ち取った。最終的に、トランプは304の選挙人票とクリントン227を獲得しました。これは、2人の不誠実な選挙人がトランプから亡命し、5人がクリントンから亡命したためです。トランプは、以前の公務も軍事経験もない最初の大統領でした。
2017年1月6日、米国諜報機関は、ロシア政府が2016年の選挙に干渉したと結論付けました[19] [20]。潜在的な大統領職。」[21]ロシアとトランプキャンペーンの間の共謀疑惑に関する特別検察官の調査が2017年5月に始まった[22] [23]調査は、トランプの立候補を支持するロシアの干渉が「徹底的かつ体系的な方法で」発生したと結論付けましたが、「トランプキャンペーンのメンバーがロシア政府と共謀または調整したことを立証しませんでした」。[24] [25]
バックグラウンド
アメリカ合衆国憲法第2条は、アメリカ合衆国の大統領と副大統領は、少なくとも35歳の米国の自然生まれの市民であり、少なくとも14年間のアメリカ合衆国の居住者でなければならないと規定しています。 [26]大統領候補は通常、いずれかの政党の指名を求めます。その場合、各政党は、その政党がその地位に立候補するのに最も適していると考える候補者を選択する方法(予備選挙など)を考案します。伝統的に、予備選挙は間接選挙です有権者が特定の候補者に誓約した党代表のスレートに投票する場所。その後、党の代表は、党に代わって立候補する候補者を正式に指名します。 11月の総選挙も間接選挙であり、有権者は選挙人団のメンバーのスレートに投票します。これらの選挙人は、大統領と副大統領を直接選出します。[27]
民主党員で元米国上院議員であるイリノイ州のバラク・オバマ大統領は、憲法修正第22条によって定められた米国大統領の任期制限の制限により、第3期への再選を求める資格がありませんでした。米国憲法修正第20条の第1条に従い、彼の任期は2017年1月20日の東部標準時の正午に満了しました。[28] [29]
同様に、大統領として追加の任期のために再選に立候補する資格がないのは、過去2期の大統領ジョージW.ブッシュとビルクリントンでした。どちらも出馬しなかったが、元大統領のジミー・カーターとジョージHWブッシュは、それぞれ1期しか務めていなかったが、どちらも2期目の大統領として出馬する資格があった。
一次プロセス
民主党と共和党の両方、および緑の党や自由党などの第三者が、2016年2月から6月の間に行われた一連の大統領予備選挙と党員集会を開催し、50州、コロンビア特別区、および米国の領土。この指名プロセスは間接選挙でもあり、有権者は政党の指名大会に代表者のスレートに投票し、政党は党の大統領候補を選出しました。
2016年のキャンペーンについての憶測は、2012年のキャンペーンのほぼ直後に始まり、ニューヨークマガジンは、2012年の選挙の2日後の11月8日に公開された記事でレースが始まったと宣言しました。[30]同日、ポリティコは2016年の総選挙がクリントンと元フロリダ州知事の ジェブ・ブッシュの間で行われると予測する記事を発表し、ニューヨークタイムズの記事ではニュージャージー州知事の クリス・クリスティとニュージャージー州のコリー・ブッカー上院議員が指名された。潜在的な候補として。[31] [32]
ノミネート
共和党
予備選挙
2015年3月23日のテッドクルーズを皮切りに17人の主要候補者が選挙に参加し、2020年の民主大統領予備選挙に追い抜かれる前は、これはアメリカ史上最大の政党の大統領予備選挙でした[33] 。[34]
2016年2月1日のアイオワ州党員集会の前に、ペリー、ウォーカー、ジンダル、グラハム、パタキは投票数が少なかったため撤退しました。アイオワで多くの世論調査を主導したにもかかわらず、トランプはクルスに次ぐ2位になり、その後、投票箱でのパフォーマンスが悪かったため、ハッカビー、ポール、サントラムが撤退しました。ニューハンプシャー州のプライマリーでトランプがかなりの勝利を収めた後、クリスティー、フィオリーナ、ギルモアはレースを放棄しました。サウスカロライナ州のトランプ、ルビオ、クルスに4位を獲得した後、ブッシュはそれに続いた。 2016年3月1日、4つの「スーパーチューズデー」の最初の「予備選挙では、ルビオがミネソタでの最初のコンテストに勝ち、クルスがアラスカ、オクラホマ、そして故郷のテキサス州に勝ち、トランプが投票した他の7つの州に勝った。牽引力を得ることができなかったため、カーソンは数日後にキャンペーンを中断した。 ] 2016年3月15日、2回目の「スーパーチューズデー」で、カシッチは故郷のオクラホマ州で唯一のコンテストに勝利し、トランプはフロリダを含む5つの予備選挙で勝利しました。ルビオは故郷の州を失った後キャンペーンを中断しました。[36]
2016年3月16日から5月3日まで、レースに残ったのはトランプ、クルス、ケーシックの3人だけでした。クルスは、4つの西部コンテストとウィスコンシンで最も多くの代表を獲得し、1,237人の代表による最初の投票でトランプの指名を否定するための信頼できる道を歩み続けました。その後、トランプは4月にニューヨークと北東部の5つの州で地滑りの勝利を記録し、2016年5月3日にインディアナで決定的な勝利を収め、州の代表者57人全員を確保することでリードを強化しました。争われた大会を強制するさらなる機会なしに、クルス[37]とケーシック[38]の両方が彼らのキャンペーンを中断した。トランプは依然として唯一のアクティブな候補者であり、共和党全国委員会の委員長によって推定共和党候補者として宣言されました2016年5月3日の夜にプリーバスを強化する。 [39]
2018年の調査によると、トランプのメディア報道は予備選挙中の彼に対する国民の支持の増加につながった。調査によると、トランプは無料メディアで20億ドル近くを受け取り、他の候補者の2倍以上になりました。政治学者のジョン・サイドは、トランプの世論調査の急増は、彼のキャンペーンの頻繁なメディア報道のために「ほぼ確実に」であると主張しました。サイドズ氏は、「彼が6月16日に立候補を発表して以来、ニュースメディアが一貫して彼に焦点を合わせているため、トランプは世論調査で急増している」と結論付けた。[40]共和党の指名を決定する前は、トランプは共和党の確立からほとんど支援を受けていなかった。[41]
候補者
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ビジネスおよび個人 アメリカ合衆国の第45代大統領
在職期間
大統領選挙 弾劾
ロシアを含む相互作用 ![]() |
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2016年共和党チケット | |
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ドナルド・トランプ | マイクペンス |
大統領のために | 副大統領のために |
トランプ・オーガナイゼーション会長 (1971–2017) |
インディアナ州知事第50代 (2013–2017) |
運動 | |
候補者
主要な候補者は、共通のコンセンサスに基づいてさまざまなメディアによって決定されました。以下は、投票の評価に基づいて、認可されたテレビ討論会に招待されました。
トランプはプライマリーで合計14,010,177票を獲得しました。トランプ、クルス、ルビオ、ケーシックはそれぞれ少なくとも1つのプライマリーを獲得し、トランプが最も多くの票を獲得し、テッド・クルスが2番目に高い票を獲得しました。
このセクションの候補者は、予備選挙からの撤退の逆の日付でソートされています | |||||||
John Kasich | Ted Cruz | Marco Rubio | Ben Carson | Jeb Bush | Jim Gilmore | Carly Fiorina | Chris Christie |
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69th Governor of Ohio (2011–2019) |
U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present) |
U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present) |
Dir. of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital (1984–2013) |
43rd Governor of Florida (1999–2007) |
68th Governor of Virginia (1998–2002) |
CEO of Hewlett-Packard (1999–2005) |
55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018) |
Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign |
W: May 4 4,287,479 votes |
W: May 3 7,811,110 votes |
W: Mar 15 3,514,124 votes |
W: Mar 4 857,009 votes |
W: Feb 20 286,634 votes |
W: Feb 12 18,364 votes |
W: Feb 10 40,577 votes |
W: Feb 10 57,634 votes |
[42] | [43][44][45] | [46][47][48] | [49][50][51] | [52][53] | [54][55] | [56][57] | [58][59] |
Rand Paul | Rick Santorum | Mike Huckabee | George Pataki | Lindsey Graham | Bobby Jindal | Scott Walker | Rick Perry |
U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present) |
U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) |
44th Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) |
53rd Governor of New York (1995–2006) |
U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003–present) |
55th Governor of Louisiana (2008–2016) |
45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019) |
47th Governor of Texas (2000–2015) |
Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign |
W: Feb 3 66,781 votes |
W: Feb 3 16,622 votes |
W: Feb 1 51,436 votes |
W: December 29, 2015 2,036 votes |
W: December 21, 2015 5,666 votes |
W: November 17, 2015 222 votes |
W: September 21, 2015 1 write-in vote in New Hampshire |
W: September 11, 2015 1 write-in vote in New Hampshire |
[60][61][62] | [63][64] | [65][66] | [67] | [68][69] | [70][71] | [72][73][74] | [74][75][76] |
副大統領選出
トランプは、2016年5月4日に推定候補者になった後、ランニングメイトの選択に注意を向けました。[77] 6月中旬、ポリティコのエリ・ストコルズとバージェス・エベレットは、トランプのキャンペーンでニュージャージー州知事のクリス・クリスティジョージア州のハウスニュートギンリッヒのスピーカー、 アラバマのジェフセッション上院議員、オクラホマ州知事のメアリーファリン。[78]ワシントンポストからの6月30日の報告には、テネシー州のボブ・コーカー上院議員、リチャード・バーも含まれていた。ノースカロライナ州から、アーカンソー州からトムコットン、アイオワ州からジョニアーンスト、そしてインディアナ州知事マイクペンスがまだチケットの対象とされています。[79]トランプはまた、引退したマイケル・フリン中尉を含む2人の軍の将軍をその地位に就任させることを検討していると述べた。[80]
2016年7月、トランプは実行中の仲間のリストをクリスティー、ギングリッチ、ペンスの3人に絞り込んだと報告されました。[81]
2016年7月14日、いくつかの主要メディアは、トランプがペンスをランニングメイトとして選んだと報じました。トランプは2016年7月15日にTwitterのメッセージでこれらの報告を確認し、翌日ニューヨークで正式に発表しました。[82] [83] 2016年共和党全国大会の2日目の夜である7月19日、ペンスは共和党副大統領の指名を称賛で勝ち取った。[84]
民主党
予備選挙
元国務長官のヒラリー・クリントンは、米国上院議員でもあり、米国のファーストレディでしたが、2015年4月12日に発表され、大統領候補の主要な立候補を正式に開始した最初の民主党員になりました。ビデオメッセージ。[85] 2015年の全国世論調査では、クリントンが2016年の民主党大統領候補指名の最有力候補であることが示されましたが、バーモント州の独立上院議員バーニー・サンダース[86]からの強い挑戦に直面しました。彼は、正式に発表したときに2番目の主要候補になりました。 2015年4月30日、彼は民主党の指名に立候補していた。[87]2015年9月の投票数は、クリントンとサンダースの間のギャップが狭くなっていることを示していました。[86] [88] [89] 2015年5月30日、マーティン・オマリー前知事が 民主党の初等選挙に出馬する3番目の主要候補であり[90] 、続いてロードアイランドリンカーンの元独立知事および共和党上院議員が続いた。チェイフィーは2015年6月3日、[91] [92]元バージニア州上院議員ジムウェッブは2015年7月2日、[93]そして元ハーバード州法学教授のローレンスレッシグは2015年9月6日。[94]
2015年10月20日、ウェッブは予備選挙からの撤退を発表し、潜在的な無所属選挙を調査しました。[95]翌日、ジョー・バイデン副大統領は出馬しないことを決定し、数ヶ月の憶測を終わらせ、「私は候補者にはならないが、沈黙はしない」と述べた。[96] [97] 10月23日、チャフィーは撤退し、「終わりのない戦争の終結と米国と人類の新しい時代の始まり」を望んでいると述べた。[98] 11月2日、規則変更の採択後、2回目のDNC認可の討論の資格を得られなかった後、以前は討論に参加する必要があったかもしれない世論調査を否定し、レッシグも撤退し、分野をクリントン、O 'に狭めた。マリー、そしてサンダース。[99]
2016年2月1日、非常に緊密なコンテストで、クリントンはアイオワ州の党員集会でサンダースを0.2ポイント上回りました。アイオワでデリゲートを獲得しなかった後、オマリーはその日大統領選挙から撤退した。 2月9日、サンダースは跳ね返り、ニューハンプシャー州の予備選挙で60%の票を獲得しました。残りの2月のコンテストでは、クリントンが53%の票でネバダ州の党員集会に勝利し、 73%の票でサウスカロライナ州の予備選挙で決定的な勝利を収めました。 [100] [101] 3月1日、11の州が4つの「スーパーチューズデー」の最初の州に参加しました。「予備選挙。クリントンはアラバマ、アーカンソー、ジョージア、マサチューセッツ、テネシー、テキサス、バージニアで504人の公約代表を獲得し、サンダースはコロラド、ミネソタ、オクラホマ、そして彼の故郷であるバーモント州と340人の代表を獲得しました。次の週末にサンダースは勝利を収めました。カンザス、ネブラスカ、メインでは15〜30ポイントの差で、クリントンはルイジアナ州の予備選挙で71%の票を獲得しました。3月8日、ミシガン州の予備選挙で首位に立ったことはありませんでしたが、サンダースはわずかな差で勝利しました。クリントンがミシシッピでの投票の83%を獲得した一方で、1.5ポイントと19ポイント以上の投票を上回っています。[102]3月15日、2回目の「スーパーチューズデー」で、クリントンはフロリダ、イリノイ、ミズーリ、ノースカロライナ、オハイオで優勝しました。 3月22日から4月9日の間に、サンダースはアイダホ、ユタ、アラスカ、ハワイ、ワシントン、ワイオミング、およびウィスコンシン州の予備選挙で6つの党員集会を獲得し、クリントンはアリゾナ州の予備選挙で勝利しました。 4月19日、クリントンはニューヨークの予備選挙で58%の票を獲得しました。 4月26日、「アセラプライマリー」と呼ばれる第3回「スーパーチューズデー」で、彼女はコネチカットでのコンテストで優勝しました。、デラウェア、メリーランド、ペンシルベニア、サンダースはロードアイランドで優勝しました。 5月の間に、サンダースはインディアナ予備選挙[103]で別のサプライズ勝利を達成し、ウェストバージニア州とオレゴン州でも勝利しました。クリントンはグアム党員集会とケンタッキー州予備選挙(およびネブラスカとワシントンの拘束力のない予備選挙)で勝利しました。
6月4日と5日、クリントンはバージン諸島の党員集会とプエルトリコのプライマリーで2勝しました。 2016年6月6日、AssociatedPressとNBCNewsは、クリントンが指名を確保するために必要な数の代議員に達した後、推定候補者になり、大統領指名をクリンチした最初の女性になったと報告しました。米国の主要政党。[104] 6月7日、クリントンはカリフォルニア、ニュージャージー、ニューメキシコ、およびサウスダコタ州、サンダース州はモンタナ州とノースダコタ州のみを獲得しました。クリントンはまた、6月14日にコロンビア特別区の最終予備選挙で勝利しました。予備選挙の結果、クリントンは予備選挙と党員集会によって授与された2,204人の公約代表(全体の54%)を獲得し、サンダースは1,847人を獲得しました( 46%)。7月の大会で投票するように設定された714人の公約されていない代表者または「スーパー代表者」のうち、クリントンは560人(78%)から支持を受け、サンダースは47人(7%)を受け取った。[105]
サンダースは正式にレースから脱落していませんでしたが、2016年6月16日、彼の主な目標は、総選挙でトランプを倒すためにクリントンと協力することであると発表しました。[106] 7月8日、クリントンキャンペーン、サンダースキャンペーン、および民主党全国委員会の任命者が党の綱領の草案を交渉した。[107] 7月12日、サンダースはニューハンプシャーでの集会でクリントンを正式に承認し、そこで彼は彼女と一緒に現れた。[108]その後、サンダースは13の主要州でクリントンに代わって39のキャンペーン集会の見出しに進んだ。[109]
候補者
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アメリカ合衆国のファーストレディ
ニューヨークの米国上院議員
米国国務長官
大統領選挙 組織
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2016年民主党のチケット | |
---|---|
ヒラリー・クリントン | ティム・ケイン |
大統領のために | 副大統領のために |
第67回 米国国務長官 (2009〜 2013年) |
バージニア州上院議員 (2013年〜現在) |
運動 | |
候補者
以下の候補者は、主要な放送ネットワークやケーブルニュースチャンネルから頻繁に面接を受けたか、公に発表された全国世論調査に掲載されました。レッシグは1つのフォーラムに招待されましたが、規則が変更されたために公式に認可された討論に参加できなくなったため、撤回しました。
クリントンはプライマリーで16,849,779票を獲得しました。
このセクションの候補者は、予備選挙からの撤退の日付でソートされています | ||||||||
Bernie Sanders | Martin O'Malley | Lawrence Lessig | Lincoln Chafee | Jim Webb | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) |
61st governor of Maryland (2007–2015) |
Harvard Law professor (2009–2016) |
74th Governor of Rhode Island (2011–2015) |
U.S. senator from Virginia (2007–2013) | ||||
Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | Campaign | ||||
LN: July 26, 2016 13,167,848 votes |
W: February 1, 2016 110,423 votes |
W: November 2, 2015 4 write-in votes in New Hampshire |
W: October 23, 2015 0 votes |
W: October 20, 2015 2 write-in votes in New Hampshire | ||||
[110] | [111][112] | [99] | [113] | [114] |
副大統領選出
2016年4月、サンダースが民主党予備選挙でクリントンに挑戦し続けたにもかかわらず、クリントンキャンペーンは15〜20人の個人のリストを作成して実行中の配偶者の位置を精査し始めました。[115] 6月中旬、ウォールストリートジャーナルは、クリントンの候補リストには、カリフォルニア州のザビエルベセラ議員、ニュージャージー州のコリーブッカー上院議員、オハイオ州のシェロッドブラウン上院議員、テキサス州の住宅都市開発長官ジュリアンカストロ、ロサンゼルス市長が含まれると報じた。カリフォルニア州上院議員、エリック・ガルセッティ バージニア州のティム・ケイン、メリーランド州の労働長官 トム・ペレス、オハイオ州の代表ティム・ライアン、マサチューセッツ州のエリザベス・ウォーレン上院議員。[116]その後の報告によると、クリントンは農務長官のトム・ビルサック、引退したジェイムズ・スタブリディス提督、コロラド州のジョン・ヒッケンルーパー知事も検討していた。[117]クリントン氏は、副大統領の潜在的な選択について話し合う際に、彼女が探していた最も重要な属性は、大統領の役割にすぐに踏み込む能力と経験であると述べた。[117]
7月22日、クリントンはバージニア州の上院議員ティム・ケインを彼女のランニングメイトとして選んだと発表した。[118] 7月25〜28日に開催された2016年民主党全国大会の代表団は、正式に民主党全国大会を指名した。
マイナー政党と無党派
全国または少なくとも15州の投票で100,000票以上を獲得した第三者および独立候補者は、別々にリストされます。
リバタリアン党
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ニューメキシコ州知事
大統領選挙
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プレガバナーシップ
マサチューセッツ州知事
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- 追加の政党の支持:ニューヨークの独立党
538の選挙人票すべてへの投票アクセス
候補者
2016リバタリアン党チケット | |
---|---|
ゲーリー・ジョンソン | ビル・ウェルド |
大統領のために | 副大統領のために |
ニューメキシコ州第29代知事 (1995–2003) |
マサチューセッツ州第68 州知事 (1991〜 1997年) |
運動 | |
緑の党
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大統領選挙
政党所属
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- ジルスタイン、マサチューセッツ州レキシントンの医師。副大統領候補:ワシントンDCの活動家、アジャム・バラカ
480の選挙人票への投票アクセス(書き込み付きの522):[119] マップ
候補者
2016年緑の党チケット | |
---|---|
ジルスタイン | アジャム・バラカ |
大統領のために | 副大統領のために |
マサチューセッツ州レキシントンの医師 |
ワシントンDCの活動 家 |
運動 | |
憲法党
- ダレル城、テネシー州メンフィスの弁護士。副大統領候補:ユタ州の実業家、スコット・ブラッドリー
207の選挙人票への投票アクセス(書き込み付きの451):[124] [125] マップ
- 書き込みとして:アラバマ、アリゾナ、コネチカット、デラウェア、ジョージア、イリノイ、インディアナ、カンザス、ケンタッキー、メイン、メリーランド、モンタナ、ネブラスカ、ニューハンプシャー、ニューヨーク、オハイオ、オレゴン、ロードアイランド、テネシー、テキサス、バーモント、バージニア[124] [126] [127] [128] [129]
- 投票アクセスなし:カリフォルニア、コロンビア特別区、マサチューセッツ、ノースカロライナ、オクラホマ[124]
候補者
2016年憲法党のチケット | |
ダレル城 | スコットブラッドリー |
---|---|
大統領のために | 副大統領のために |
テネシー州メンフィスの弁護士 |
ユタ州 のビジネスマン |
運動 | |
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[130] |
独立
- House RepublicanConferenceのチーフポリシーディレクターであるEvanMcMullin氏。副大統領候補:エンパワーメントされた女性の大統領、ミンディー・フィン。
- 追加の政党の支持:ミネソタ州の独立党、サウスカロライナ州の独立党
84の選挙人票への投票アクセス(書き込み付きの451):[131] マップ
- 書き込みとして:アラバマ、アラスカ、アリゾナ、カリフォルニア、コネチカット、デラウェア、ジョージア、イリノイ、カンザス、メイン、メリーランド、マサチューセッツ、ミシガン、ミズーリ、モンタナ、ネブラスカ、ニューハンプシャー、ニュージャージー、ニューヨーク、ノースダコタ、オハイオ、オレゴン、ペンシルベニア、ロードアイランド、テネシー、テキサス、バーモント、ワシントン、ウェストバージニア、ウィスコンシン[131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137]
- 投票アクセスなし:コロンビア特別区、フロリダ、ハワイ、インディアナ、ミシシッピ、ネバダ、ノースカロライナ、オクラホマ、サウスダコタ、ワイオミング
一部の州では、エヴァン・マクマリンのランニングメイトがミンディー・フィンではなくネイサン・ジョンソンとして投票に記載されていましたが、ネイサン・ジョンソンは実際のランニングメイトが選ばれるまではプレースホルダーとしてのみ意図されていました。[138]
2016年独立チケット | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
エヴァン・マクマリン | ミンディー・フィン | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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大統領のために | 副大統領のために | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ハウス共和党会議 の最高政策責任者(2015–2016) |
権限を与えられた女性の大統領 (2015年–現在) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
運動 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
[139] |
その他の推薦
これらの候補者は、投票の少なくとも0.01%(13,667票)を獲得しました。
パーティ | 大統領候補 | 副大統領候補 | 達成可能な選挙人 (書き込み) |
人気投票 | 投票アクセスのある州 (書き込み) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
社会主義解放党 |
カリフォルニア出身のグロリア・ラ・リヴァ 新聞印刷業者および活動家 |
ワシントンDCのユージンピューライヤー 活動家 |
112 (226) マップ |
74,402 (0.05%) |
カリフォルニア、コロラド、アイオワ、ルイジアナ、ニュージャージー、ニューメキシコ、バーモント、ワシントン[142] [143] (アラバマ、コネチカット、デラウェア、カンザス、メリーランド、ミネソタ、ニューハンプシャー、ニューヨーク、オレゴン、ペンシルベニア、ロードアイランド、ウェストバージニア)[133] [134] [136] [128] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] |
独立 | オハイオ州のリチャードダンカン 不動産エージェント |
ペンシルベニア州のリッキー・ジョンソン 説教者 |
18 (173) |
24,307 (0.02%) |
オハイオ[149] (アラバマ、アラスカ、デラウェア、フロリダ、アイダホ、インディアナ、アイオワ、ケンタッキー、メリーランド、ミネソタ、モンタナ、ネブラスカ、ニューハンプシャー、ニュージャージー、オレゴン、ペンシルベニア、ロードアイランド、バーモント、ウェストバージニア)[128] [144] [145] [150] [151] [146] [147] [143] [148] [152] [153] [154] [155] |
総選挙キャンペーン
候補者の信念と方針
ヒラリー・クリントンは、中産階級の収入の増加、女性の権利の拡大、選挙資金改革の開始、医療保険制度改革の改善など、いくつかのテーマに候補者を集中させました。 2016年3月、彼女は経済哲学を包括的資本主義に基づいた詳細な経済計画を策定しました。これは、海外に仕事を移す企業の減税やその他の利益を取り消す「クローバック」を提案しました。株価を上げて株主に報いるために短期的な利益に焦点を合わせるのではなく、従業員、地域社会、環境と利益を共有する企業にインセンティブを提供する。団体交渉を増やすだけでなく権利;そして、海外でより低い税率を支払うために本社を米国外に移転する企業に「出口税」を課します。[156]クリントンは、男性と同じ仕事をするために女性が支払われる金額の現在の不足に対処するために、同一労働同一賃金を推進し、 [157]家族の問題と普遍的な幼稚園の支援に明確に焦点を当てることを推進し、[158]同性結婚の権利[158]と、文書化されていない移民が市民権への道を持てるようにすることを提案し、それは「本質的に家族の問題である」と述べた。[159]
ドナルド・トランプのキャンペーンは、彼の以前のメディアへの露出によって強化された、彼の個人的なイメージに大きく依存していました。[160]キャンペーン商品で広く使用されているトランプキャンペーンの主要なスローガンは、Make America GreatAgainでした。正面にスローガンが飾られた赤い野球帽は、キャンペーンのシンボルとなり、トランプと彼の支持者によって頻繁に着用されてきました。[161]トランプの右翼ポピュリストの立場は、ニューヨーカーによって移民排斥主義者、保護貿易主義者、半孤立主義者であると報告されており、伝統的な米国の保守主義とは多くの点で異なっている。[162]彼は多くの人に反対した保守派が一般的に支持し、メディケアと社会保障給付の削減に反対した自由貿易協定と軍事介入主義政策。さらに、彼はワシントンが「壊れている」と主張し、部外者によってのみ修正することができます。[163] [164] [165]トランプへの支持は、年収が5万ドル未満で、大学の学位を持たない、働く中産階級の白人男性の有権者の間で高かった。[166]このグループ、特に高校の卒業証書を持たないグループは、近年、収入の減少に苦しんでいた。[167]ワシントンポストによると、トランプへの支持は、中年の白人の死亡率が高い地域で高くなっています。[168] 2015年8月から12月までの11,000人以上の共和党寄りの回答者へのインタビューのサンプルでは、当時のトランプはウェストバージニア州の共和党員の中で最も強力な支持を得ており、ニューヨーク、そして南部の6つの州がそれに続いた。[169]
マスコミ報道
クリントンは、公務員としての生涯を通じて、マスコミと不安な、そして時には敵対的な関係を持っていました。[170]大統領候補としての正式な入国の数週間前に、クリントンは政治記者団のイベントに出席し、彼女が政治記者との「複雑な」関係であると述べたことを新たに始めることを約束した。[171]クリントンは当初、彼らの質問を避けたとしてマスコミから批判された[172] [173]その後、彼女はさらにインタビューを行った。
対照的に、トランプは他のどの候補者よりも無料メディアの恩恵を受けました。キャンペーンの開始から2016年2月まで、トランプはクリントンが受け取った金額の2倍の約20億ドルの無料メディアの注目を集めました。[174]毎晩のニュースコンテンツを追跡するTyndallReportのデータによると、 2016年2月まで、トランプだけが、 NBC、CBS、ABCの夕方のニュース放送で、2016年の選挙報道全体の4分の1以上を占め、民主党全体を上回っていました。組み合わせたキャンペーン。[175] [176] [177]オブザーバーは、「ほぼ意のままに」一定の主流メディア報道を獲得するトランプの能力に注目した。[178]しかし、トランプは彼が彼についての虚偽の話であると主張したものを書いたことでメディアを頻繁に批判し[179] 、彼は彼の支持者に「サイレントマジョリティ」であるように呼びかけました。[180]トランプはまた、メディアが「私が言う言葉に誤った意味を入れている」と述べ、メディアがそれについて正直である限り、メディアから批判されることを気にしないと述べた。[181] [182]
論争
クリントンとトランプの両方が一般大衆に不利に見られ、彼らの物議を醸す評判がキャンペーンのトーンを設定しました。[183]
国務長官時代に国務省のサーバーの代わりにプライベートメールアドレスとサーバーを使用するというクリントンの慣習は、2015年3月に広く世間の注目を集めました。[184]メールのセキュリティと保存、およびその可能性について懸念が表明されました。その法律に違反した可能性があります。[185]問題の電子メールの一部がこのいわゆる「機密扱い」のカテゴリに分類されたという申し立てが提起された後、機密情報がクリントンサーバーでどのように処理されたかに関してFBI調査が開始されました。[186] [187] [188] [189] FBIの調査は、2016年7月5日に終了し、無料の勧告があり、司法省がこれに続いた。
また、2016年9月9日、クリントン大統領は次のように述べています。あなたはそれに名前を付けます。」[190] ドナルド・トランプは、彼の支持者を侮辱したとして彼女の発言を批判した。[191] [192]翌日、クリントンは「半分」と言ったことに対する後悔を表明し、トランプは「憎むべき見解と声」を嘆かわしいほど増幅したと主張した。[193]以前、2016年8月25日、クリントンは「人種差別的な嘘」を使用し、オルタナ右翼を目立たせるためのトランプのキャンペーンを批判する演説を行った。[194]
2016年9月11日、クリントンは病気のために9/11の記念イベントを早めに去りました。[195]クリントンの出発のビデオ映像は、クリントンが彼女の足で不安定になり、バンに助けられていることを示した。[196]その夜遅く、クリントンは記者たちに彼女が「気分がいい」と安心させた。[197]最初にクリントンがイベントで過熱したと述べた後、彼女のキャンペーンは後に彼女が2日前に肺炎と診断されたと付け加えた。[196]メディアは、クリントンの病気に関する透明性の欠如についてクリントンキャンペーンを批判した。[196]クリントンは彼女の病気のためにカリフォルニアへの計画された旅行をキャンセルしました。このエピソードは、クリントンの健康についての質問に新たな世間の注目を集めました。[197]
一方、2016年10月7日、ワシントンポストからビデオとそれに付随するオーディオがリリースされ、アクセスハリウッドのエピソードを撮影する準備をしているときに、トランプがビリーブッシュとの2005年の会話で女性にわいせつに言及しました。録音の中で、トランプは既婚女性との性的関係を開始する彼の試みを説明し、女性は男性の有名人が性器を手探りすることを許可すると付け加えました(トランプは「猫をつかむ」というフレーズを使用しました)。オーディオは、メディアからの不信と嫌悪感の反応に遭遇しました。[198] [199] [200]啓示に続いて、トランプのキャンペーンは、ビデオが「何年も前」からの個人的な会話であったと述べて、謝罪を出しました。[201]事件は、ラインス・プリーバス、ミット・ロムニー、ジョン・ケーシック、ジェブ・ブッシュ[202]、下院議長の ポール・ライアンなどの多数の著名な共和党員によって非難された。[203]多くの人が、このビデオがトランプの選挙のチャンスを運命づけたと信じていた。 10月8日までに、数十人の共和党員がトランプにキャンペーンから撤退し、ペンスとコンドリーザ・ライスにチケットの先頭に立つように求めていました。[204]トランプは決して脱落しないと主張したが、彼の発言について謝罪した。[205] [206]
ドナルド・トランプはまた、キャンペーンの軌跡でイスラム教徒とイスラム教に対して強力で物議を醸す声明を発表し、「イスラム教は私たちを憎んでいると思う」と述べた。[207]彼は批判され、また、「ドナルド・J・トランプは、私たちの国の代表が何が起こっているのか理解できるまで、米国に入るイスラム教徒の完全かつ完全な閉鎖を求めている」と宣言した集会での彼の声明を支持した。[208]さらに、トランプは監視モスクを「調査」すると発表し、サンバーナーディーノでの銃撃を受けて国内テロリストの家族を追跡する可能性があると述べた。[209]イスラム教徒に対する彼の強いレトリックは、彼の発言を非難する両党からのリーダーシップをもたらしました。しかし、彼の支持者の多くは、反発にもかかわらず、彼の提案された渡航禁止令への支持を共有しました。 [208]
キャンペーンを通じて、トランプはインタビュー、スピーチ、ツイッターの投稿で、敗北した場合に選挙の結果を認めることを拒否することを示した。[210] [211]トランプは、選挙は彼に対して不正に行われるだろうと誤って述べた。[212] [213] 2016年の大統領選挙討論会で、トランプはフォックスニュースのアンカーであるクリスウォーレスに選挙結果を受け入れるかどうかを伝えることを拒否した。[214]主要な大統領候補が次のようにトランプ自身がそうするまで選挙の結果を受け入れることを拒否したことはなかったので、主要な候補者による選挙結果の拒否は当時前例がなかったであろう。2020年大統領選挙。[215] [216]
選挙に関する継続的な論争により、第三者が有権者の注目を集めました。2016年3月3日、リバタリアンのゲーリージョンソンは、ワシントンDCで開催された保守政治活動協議会で演説し、反トランプ共和党員のサードパーティオプションとして自分自身を宣伝しました。[217] [218] 5月初旬、一部のコメンテーターは、ジョンソンは非常に嫌われ、二極化したヒラリー・クリントンとドナルド・トランプの両方から票を奪うほど穏健であると意見を述べた。[219]保守派とリベラル派の両方のメディアは、ジョンソンが「決してトランプしない」共和党員と不満を抱いたバーニー・サンダース支持者から票を得ることができると述べた。[220]ジョンソンはまた、 ABCニュース、NBCニュース、CBSニュース、CNN、フォックスニュース、MSNBC、ブルームバーグ、および他の多くのネットワークに招待されて、全国テレビで時間を稼ぎ始めました。 [221] 2016年9月と10月に、ジョンソンは「彼が外交問題について質問をしたとき、一連の損害を与えるつまずき」に苦しんだ。[222] [223] 9月8日、ジョンソンはMSNBCのモーニングジョーに出演したとき、パネリストのマイクバルニクレから、「選出されたら、アレッポについてどうしますか」と尋ねられました。 (を参照してシリアの戦争で荒廃した都市)。ジョンソンは、「そして、アレッポとは何ですか?」と答えました。[224]彼の反応は広く注目を集め、その多くは否定的だった。[224] [225]その日遅く、ジョンソンは彼が「空白」になり、「シリアの紛争のダイナミクスを理解している-私はそれらについて毎日話している」と述べた。[225]
一方、緑の党のジル・スタイン候補は、民主共和党は「2つの企業党」であり、1つに収斂していると述べた。[226]国際的な極右の台頭と民主党内の新自由主義への傾向を懸念して、彼女は「ネオファシズムへの答えは新自由主義を止めることである。ホワイトハウスに別のクリントンを置くことはこの権利の炎を扇動するだろう-翼の過激主義。」[227] [228]
ジョンソンの投票数の増加に応えて、クリントンキャンペーンと民主党の同盟国は2016年9月にジョンソンに対する批判を強め、「第三者への投票はドナルドトランプへの投票である」と警告し、バーニーサンダース上院議員(クリントンの元予備選挙、ジョンソンまたはスタインへの投票を検討している可能性のある有権者に勝つために、総選挙で彼女を支持した人)。[229]
選挙の11日前の10月28日、 FBIのジェームズコミー長官は、FBIが 無関係の事件の捜査中に入手した追加のクリントンの電子メールを分析していることを議会に通知しました。[230] [231] 11月6日、彼は議会に、新しい電子メールがFBIの以前の結論を変更しなかったことを通知した。[232] [233]
投票へのアクセス
大統領チケット | パーティ | 投票へのアクセス | 投票[2] [234] | パーセンテージ | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
州 | 選挙人 | 有権者の割合 | ||||
トランプ/ペンス | 共和党 | 50 + DC | 538 | 100% | 62,984,828 | 46.09% |
クリントン/ケイン | 民主主義 | 50 + DC | 538 | 100% | 65,853,514 | 48.18% |
ジョンソン/ウェルド | 自由主義者 | 50 + DC | 538 | 100% | 4,489,341 | 3.28% |
スタイン/バラカ | 緑 | 44 + DC | 480 | 89% | 1,457,218 | 1.07% |
マクマリン/フィン | 独立 | 11 | 84 | 15% | 731,991 | 0.54% |
キャッスル/ブラッドリー | 憲法 | 24 | 207 | 39% | 203,090 | 0.15% |
- 太字の候補者は、書き込み状態を必要とせずに、270の選挙人票を表す投票に参加しました。
- 他のすべての候補者は25州未満の投票に参加していましたが、270を超える書き込みアクセス権を持っていました。
党大会
- 共和党
- 民主党
- July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.[237]
- Libertarian Party
- Green Party
- Constitution Party
- April 13–16, 2016: Constitution Party National Convention was held in Salt Lake City, Utah.[242]
Campaign finance
Wall Street spent a record $2 billion trying to influence the 2016 United States presidential election.[243][244]
The following table is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it is reported to Federal Election Commission (FEC) and released in September 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure-only committees—also called PACs and SuperPACs. The sources of the numbers are the FEC and Center for Responsive Politics.[245] Some spending totals are not available, due to withdrawals before the FEC deadline. As of September 2016[update], ten candidates with ballot access have filed financial reports with the FEC.
Candidate | Campaign committee (as of December 9) | Outside groups (as of December 9) | Total spent | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Money raised | Money spent | Cash on hand | Debt | Money raised | Money spent | Cash on hand | ||
Donald Trump[246][247] | $350,668,435 | $343,056,732 | $7,611,702 | $0 | $100,265,563 | $97,105,012 | $3,160,552 | $440,161,744 |
Hillary Clinton[248][249] | $585,699,061 | $585,580,576 | $323,317 | $182 | $206,122,160 | $205,144,296 | $977,864 | $790,724,872 |
Gary Johnson[250][251] | $12,193,984 | $12,463,110 | $6,299 | $0 | $1,386,971 | $1,314,095 | $75,976 | $13,777,205 |
Rocky De La Fuente[252] | $8,075,959 | $8,074,913 | $1,046 | $8,058,834 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $8,074,913 |
Jill Stein[253][254] | $11,240,359 | $11,275,899 | $105,132 | $87,740 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $11,275,899 |
Evan McMullin[255] | $1,644,102 | $1,642,165 | $1,937 | $644,913 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,642,165 |
Darrell Castle[256] | $72,264 | $68,063 | $4,200 | $4,902 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $68,063 |
Gloria La Riva[257] | $31,408 | $32,611 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $32,611 |
Monica Moorehead[258] | $14,313 | $15,355 | -$1,043 | -$5,500[A] | $0 | $0 | $0 | $15,355 |
Peter Skewes[259] | $8,216 | $8,216 | $0 | $4,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $8,216 |
- ^ Debt owed to committee
Voting rights
The 2016 presidential election was the first in 50 years without all the protections of the original Voting Rights Act.[260] Fourteen states had new voting restrictions in place, including swing states such as Virginia and Wisconsin.[261][262][263][264][265]
Newspaper endorsements
Clinton was endorsed by The New York Times,[266] the Los Angeles Times,[267] the Houston Chronicle,[268] the San Jose Mercury News,[269] the Chicago Sun-Times[270] and the New York Daily News[271] editorial boards. Several papers which endorsed Clinton, such as the Houston Chronicle,[268] The Dallas Morning News,[272] The San Diego Union-Tribune,[273] The Columbus Dispatch[274] and The Arizona Republic,[275] endorsed their first Democratic candidate for many decades. The Atlantic, which has been in circulation since 1857, gave Clinton its third-ever endorsement (after Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson).[276]
Trump, who frequently criticized the mainstream media, was not endorsed by the vast majority of newspapers.[277][278] The Las Vegas Review-Journal,[279] The Florida Times-Union,[280] and the tabloid National Enquirer were his highest profile supporters.[281] USA Today, which had not endorsed any candidate since it was founded in 1982, broke tradition by giving an anti-endorsement against Trump, declaring him "unfit for the presidency."[282][283]
Gary Johnson received endorsements from several major daily newspapers, including the Chicago Tribune,[284] and the Richmond Times-Dispatch.[285] Other traditionally Republican papers, including the New Hampshire Union Leader, which had endorsed the Republican nominee in every election for the last 100 years,[286] and The Detroit News, which had not endorsed a non-Republican in its 143 years,[287] endorsed Gary Johnson.
Involvement of other countries
Russian involvement
On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed.[288] President Barack Obama ordered a "full review" into such possible intervention.[289] Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media.[290] Facebook revealed that during the 2016 United States presidential election, a Russian company funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin,[291] had purchased advertisements on the website for US$100,000,[292] 25% of which were geographically targeted to the U.S.[293]
President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated.[294] Julian Assange said the Russian government was not the source of the documents.[295] Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies."[296]
Several U.S. senators—including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham—demanded a congressional investigation.[297] The Senate Intelligence Committee announced the scope of their official inquiry on December 13, 2016, on a bipartisan basis; work began on January 24, 2017.[298]
A formal Special Counsel investigation headed by former FBI director Robert Mueller was initiated in May 2017 to uncover the detailed interference operations by Russia, and to determine whether any people associated with the Trump campaign were complicit in the Russian efforts. When questioned by Chuck Todd on Meet the Press on March 5, 2017, Clapper declared that intelligence investigations on Russian interference performed by the FBI, CIA, NSA and his ODNI office had found no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.[299] Mueller concluded his investigation on March 22, 2019, by submitting his report to Attorney General William Barr.[300]
On March 24, 2019, Barr submitted a letter describing Mueller's conclusions,[301][302] and on April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the Mueller Report was released to the public. It concluded that Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election did occur "in sweeping and systematic fashion" and "violated U.S. criminal law."[303][304]
The first method detailed in the final report was the usage of the Internet Research Agency, waging "a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton."[305] The Internet Research Agency also sought to "provoke and amplify political and social discord in the United States."[306]
The second method of Russian interference saw the Russian intelligence service, the GRU, hacking into email accounts owned by volunteers and employees of the Clinton presidential campaign, including that of campaign chairman John Podesta, and also hacking into "the computer networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC)."[307] As a result, the GRU obtained hundreds of thousands of hacked documents, and the GRU proceeded by arranging releases of damaging hacked material via the WikiLeaks organization and also GRU's personas "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0."[308][309] To establish whether a crime was committed by members of the Trump campaign with regard to Russian interference, the special counsel's investigators "applied the framework of conspiracy law", and not the concept of "collusion", because collusion "is not a specific offense or theory of liability found in the United States Code, nor is it a term of art in federal criminal law."[310][311] They also investigated if members of the Trump campaign "coordinated" with Russia, using the definition of "coordination" as having "an agreement—tacit or express—between the Trump campaign and the Russian government on election interference." Investigators further elaborated that merely having "two parties taking actions that were informed by or responsive to the other's actions or interests" was not enough to establish coordination.[312]
The Mueller Report writes that the investigation "identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump campaign", found that Russia "perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency" and that the 2016 Trump presidential campaign "expected it would benefit electorally" from Russian hacking efforts. Ultimately, "the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."[313][314]
However, investigators had an incomplete picture of what had really occurred during the 2016 campaign, due to some associates of Trump campaign providing either false, incomplete or declined testimony, as well as having deleted, unsaved or encrypted communications. As such, the Mueller Report "cannot rule out the possibility" that information then unavailable to investigators would have presented different findings.[315][316] In March 2020, the US Justice Department dropped its prosecution of two Russian firms linked to interference in the 2016 election.[317][291]
Other countries
Special Council Robert Mueller also investigated the Trump campaign's alleged ties to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Israel, and China.[318][319] According to The Times of Israel, Trump's longtime confidant Roger Stone "was in contact with one or more apparently well-connected Israelis at the height of the 2016 US presidential campaign, one of whom warned Stone that Trump was 'going to be defeated unless we intervene' and promised 'we have critical intell[sic].'"[320][321]
The Justice Department accused George Nader of providing $3.5 million in illicit campaign donations to Hillary Clinton before the elections and to Trump after he won the elections. According to The New York Times, this was an attempt by the government of United Arab Emirates to influence the election.[322]
In December 2018, a Ukrainian court ruled that prosecutors in Ukraine had meddled in the 2016 election by releasing damaging information on Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.[323]
Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "U.S. intelligence agencies concluded the Chinese hackers meddled in both the 2016 and 2018 elections."[324]
In July 2021, the US federal prosecutors accused Trump’s former adviser Tom Barrack for being an unregistered foreign lobbying agent for the United Arab Emirates during the 2016 Presidential campaign of Donald Trump.[325] An acting Assistant Attorney General, Mark Lesko had said that the Justice Department was determined to put everyone “on notice”, irrespective of “their wealth or perceived political power”. However, according to the HuffPost, the Biden administration was seen continuing diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and that the United Arab Emirates "has fared better under President Joe Biden than might have been expected" considering Biden's emphasis and criticism of poor human rights records and governments that meddle in US politics.[326]
Notable expressions, phrases, and statements
By Trump and Republicans:
- "Because you'd be in jail": Off the cuff quip by Donald Trump during the second presidential debate, in rebuttal to Clinton stating it was "awfully good someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country."[327]
- "Big-league": A word used by Donald Trump most notably during the first presidential debate, misheard by many as bigly, when he said, "I'm going to cut taxes big-league, and you're going to raise taxes big-league."[328][329]
- "Build the wall": A chant used at many Trump campaign rallies, and Donald Trump's corresponding promise of the Mexican Border Wall.[328]
- "Drain the swamp": A phrase Donald Trump invoked late in the campaign to describe what needs to be done to fix problems in the federal government. Trump acknowledged that the phrase was suggested to him, and he was initially skeptical about using it.[330]
- "Grab 'em by the pussy": A remark made by Trump during a 2005 behind-the-scenes interview with presenter Billy Bush on NBCUniversal's Access Hollywood, which was released during the campaign. The remark was part of a conversation in which Trump boasted that "when you're a star, they let you do it."
- "I like people who weren't captured": Donald Trump's criticism of Senator John McCain, who was held as a prisoner of war by North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.[331][332]
- "Lock her up": A chant first used at the Republican convention to claim that Hillary Clinton is guilty of a crime. The chant was later used at many Trump campaign rallies and even against other female politicians critical of Trump, such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.[333][334]
- "Make America great again": Donald Trump's campaign slogan.
- "Mexico will pay for it": Trump's campaign promise that if elected he will build a wall on the border between the US and Mexico, with Mexico financing the project.[335][336]
- Nicknames used by Trump to deride his opponents: These include "Crooked Hillary", "Little Marco", "Low-energy Jeb", and "Lyin' Ted."
- "Russia, if you're listening": Used by Donald Trump to invite Russia to "find the 30,000 emails that are missing" (from Hillary Clinton) during a July 2016 news conference.[337]
- "Such a nasty woman": Donald Trump's response to Hillary Clinton after her saying that her proposed rise in Social Security contributions would also include Trump's Social Security contributions, "assuming he can't figure out how to get out of it."[328] Later reappropriated by supporters of Clinton[338][339][340] and liberal feminists.[341][342][343]
- "They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people": Donald Trump's controversial description of those crossing the Mexico–United States border during the June 2015 launch of his campaign.[344]
- "What the hell do you have to lose?": Said by Donald Trump to inner-city African Americans at rallies starting on August 19, 2016.[345][346]
By Clinton and Democrats:
- "Basket of deplorables": A controversial phrase coined by Hillary Clinton to describe half of those who support Trump.
- "I'm with her": Clinton's unofficial campaign slogan ("Stronger Together" was the official slogan).[347]
- "What, like with a cloth or something?": Said by Hillary Clinton in response to being asked whether she "wiped" her emails during an August 2015 press conference.[331]
- "Why aren't I 50 points ahead?": Question asked by Hillary Clinton during a video address to the Laborers' International Union of North America on September 21, 2016, which was then turned into an opposition ad by the Trump campaign.[348][349]
- "When they go low, we go high": Said by then-first lady Michelle Obama during her Democratic convention speech.[328] This was later inverted by Eric Holder.[350]
- "Feel the Bern": A phrase chanted by supporters of the Bernie Sanders campaign which was officially adopted by his campaign.[351]
Debates
Primary election
General election
The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, hosted debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination."[352]
The three locations (Hofstra University, Washington University in St. Louis, University of Nevada, Las Vegas) chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location (Longwood University) selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.[353]
On August 19, Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager confirmed that Trump would participate in a series of three debates.[354][355][356][357] Trump had complained two of the scheduled debates, one on September 26 and the other October 9, would have to compete for viewers with National Football League games, referencing the similar complaints made regarding the dates with low expected ratings during the Democratic Party presidential debates.[358]
There were also debates between independent candidates.
No. | Date | Time | Host | City | Moderator(s) | Participants | Viewership
(millions) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1 | September 26, 2016 | 9:00 p.m. EDT | Hofstra University | Hempstead, New York | Lester Holt | Donald Trump Hillary Clinton |
84.0[359] |
VP | October 4, 2016 | 9:00 p.m. EDT | Longwood University | Farmville, Virginia | Elaine Quijano | Mike Pence Tim Kaine |
37.0[359] |
P2 | October 9, 2016 | 8:00 p.m. CDT | Washington University in St. Louis | St. Louis, Missouri | Anderson Cooper Martha Raddatz |
Donald Trump Hillary Clinton |
66.5[359] |
P3 | October 19, 2016 | 6:00 p.m. PDT | University of Nevada, Las Vegas | Las Vegas, Nevada | Chris Wallace | Donald Trump Hillary Clinton |
71.6[359] |
Results
Election night and the next day
The news media and election experts were surprised at Trump's winning the Electoral College. On the eve of the vote, spread betting firm Spreadex had Clinton at an Electoral College spread of 307–322 against Trump's 216–231.[360] The final polls showed a lead by Clinton and in the end she did receive more votes.[361] Trump himself expected, based on polling, to lose the election, and rented a small hotel ballroom to make a brief concession speech, later remarking: "I said if we're going to lose I don't want a big ballroom."[362] Trump performed surprisingly well in all battleground states, especially Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. Even Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, states that had been predicted to vote Democratic, were won by Trump.[363] Cindy Adams reported that "Trumptown knew they'd won by 5:30. Math, calculations, candidate dislike causing voter abstention begat the numbers."[364]
According to the authors of Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, the White House had concluded by late Tuesday night that Trump would win the election. Obama's political director David Simas called Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook to persuade Clinton to concede the election, with no success. Obama then called Clinton directly, citing the importance of continuity of government, to ask her to publicly acknowledge that Trump had won.[365] Believing that Clinton was still unwilling to concede, the president then called her campaign chair John Podesta, but the call to Clinton had likely already persuaded her.[366]
After networks called Pennsylvania for Trump, putting him with 264 electoral votes while he had a five-point lead in Arizona, which gives eleven electoral votes that would put Trump above the majority of 270, Clinton realized she had no chance to win the election and called Trump early Wednesday morning to concede defeat.[367] Clinton was unable to make a public concession that night, as she had no concession speech written.[368]
On Wednesday morning at 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), it was reported that Trump had secured Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, giving him a majority of the 538 electors in the Electoral College, enough to make him the president-elect of the United States,[369] and at 2:50 a.m. Trump gave his victory speech.[369]
Later that day, Clinton asked her supporters to accept the result and hoped that Trump would be "a successful president for all Americans."[370] In his speech, Trump appealed for unity, saying "it is time for us to come together as one united people", and praised Clinton as someone who was owed "a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country."[371]
Statistical analysis
Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney had in 2012, with two lost to faithless electors in the final tally. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic.[234]
Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for president was nearly 1% higher than in 2012. Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot. Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and a voting eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP.[372] Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP). A FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for President—more than any prior election.[1] Hillary Clinton won 51.1% of the two party vote and Donald Trump won 48.9% of it.
Data scientist Hamdan Azhar noted the paradoxes of the 2016 outcome, saying that "chief among them [was] the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227." He said Trump outperformed Mitt Romney's 2012 results, while Clinton only just matched Barack Obama's 2012 totals. Hamdan also said Trump was "the highest vote earner of any Republican candidate ever," exceeding George W. Bush's 62.04 million votes in 2004, though neither reached Clinton's 65.9 million, nor Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008. He concluded, with help from The Cook Political Report, that the election hinged not on Clinton's large 2.8 million overall vote margin over Trump, but rather on about 78,000 votes from only three counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.[373]
The 2016 election marked the eighth consecutive presidential election where the victorious major party nominee did not receive a popular vote majority by a double-digit margin over the losing major party nominee(s), with the sequence of presidential elections from 1988 through 2016 surpassing the sequences from 1836 through 1860 and from 1876 through 1900 to become the longest sequence of such presidential elections in U.S. history.[374][note 1][375]
Electoral results
Notes:
- ^ a b In state-by-state tallies, Trump earned 306 pledged electors, Clinton 232. They lost respectively two and five votes to faithless electors. Vice presidential candidates Pence and Kaine lost one and five votes, respectively. Three other votes by electors were invalidated and recast.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Received electoral vote(s) from a faithless elector
- ^ a b c d e f g h Candidate received votes as a write-in. The exact numbers of write-in votes have been published for three states: California, Vermont, and New Hampshire.[377] It was possible to vote Sanders as a write-in candidate in 14 states.[citation needed]
- ^ a b c Two faithless electors from Texas cast their presidential votes for Ron Paul and John Kasich, respectively. Chris Suprun said he cast his presidential vote for John Kasich and his vice presidential vote for Carly Fiorina. The other faithless elector in Texas, Bill Greene, cast his presidential vote for Ron Paul but cast his vice presidential vote for Mike Pence, as pledged. John Kasich received recorded write-in votes in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.
232 | 306 |
Clinton | Trump |
Results by state
The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states is the official Federal Election Commission report.[2] The column labeled "Margin" shows Trump's margin of victory over Clinton (the margin is negative for every state that Clinton won).
A total of 29 third party and independent presidential candidates appeared on the ballot in at least one state. Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson and physician Jill Stein repeated their 2012 roles as the nominees for the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, respectively.[378] With ballot access to the entire national electorate, Johnson received nearly 4.5 million votes (3.27%), the highest nationwide vote share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996,[379] while Stein received almost 1.45 million votes (1.06%), the most for a Green nominee since Ralph Nader in 2000.
Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who appeared on the ballot in 11 states, received over 732,000 votes (0.53%). He won 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a third-party candidate in any state since 1992.[380] Despite dropping out of the election following his defeat in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a presidential candidate in American history.[381] Johnson and McMullin were the first third-party candidates since Nader to receive at least 5% of the vote in one or more states, with Johnson crossing the mark in 11 states and McMullin crossing it in two.
Aside from Florida and North Carolina, the states which secured Trump's victory are situated in the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. Wisconsin went Republican for the first time since 1984, while Pennsylvania and Michigan went Republican for the first time since 1988.[382][383][384] Trump also won Maine's 2nd congressional district, which had also not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Stein petitioned for a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Clinton campaign pledged to participate in the Green Party recount efforts, while Trump backers challenged them in court.[385][386][387] Meanwhile, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente petitioned for and was granted a partial recount in Nevada.[388]
According to a 2021 study in Science Advances, conversion of voters who voted for Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 contributed to Republican flips in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.[389]
States/districts won by Clinton/Kaine | |
States/districts won by Trump/Pence | |
† | At-large results (for states that split electoral votes) |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Evan McMullin Independent |
Others | Margin | Total votes |
|||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||
Ala. | 729,547 | 34.36% | – | 1,318,255 | 62.08% | 9 | 44,467 | 2.09% | – | 9,391 | 0.44% | – | – | – | – | 21,712 | 1.02% | – | 588,708 | 27.73% | 2,123,372 | [390] |
Alaska | 116,454 | 36.55% | – | 163,387 | 51.28% | 3 | 18,725 | 5.88% | – | 5,735 | 1.80% | – | – | – | – | 14,307 | 4.49% | – | 46,933 | 14.73% | 318,608 | [391] |
Ariz. | 1,161,167 | 44.58% | – | 1,252,401 | 48.08% | 11 | 106,327 | 4.08% | – | 34,345 | 1.32% | – | 17,449 | 0.67% | – | 32,968 | 1.27% | – | 91,234 | 3.50% | 2,604,657 | [392] |
Ark. | 380,494 | 33.65% | – | 684,872 | 60.57% | 6 | 29,949 | 2.64% | – | 9,473 | 0.84% | – | 13,176 | 1.17% | – | 12,712 | 1.12% | – | 304,378 | 26.92% | 1,130,676 | [393] |
Calif. | 8,753,788 | 61.73% | 55 | 4,483,810 | 31.62% | – | 478,500 | 3.37% | – | 278,657 | 1.96% | – | 39,596 | 0.28% | – | 147,244 | 1.04% | – | −4,269,978 | −30.11% | 14,181,595 | [394] |
Colo. | 1,338,870 | 48.16% | 9 | 1,202,484 | 43.25% | – | 144,121 | 5.18% | – | 38,437 | 1.38% | – | 28,917 | 1.04% | – | 27,418 | 0.99% | – | −136,386 | −4.91% | 2,780,247 | [395] |
Conn. | 897,572 | 54.57% | 7 | 673,215 | 40.93% | – | 48,676 | 2.96% | – | 22,841 | 1.39% | – | 2,108 | 0.13% | – | 508 | 0.03% | – | −224,357 | −13.64% | 1,644,920 | [396] |
Del. | 235,603 | 53.09% | 3 | 185,127 | 41.72% | – | 14,757 | 3.32% | – | 6,103 | 1.37% | – | 706 | 0.16% | – | 1,518 | 0.34% | – | −50,476 | −11.37% | 443,814 | [397][398] |
D.C. | 282,830 | 90.86% | 3 | 12,723 | 4.09% | – | 4,906 | 1.57% | – | 4,258 | 1.36% | – | – | – | – | 6,551 | 2.52% | – | −270,107 | −86.77% | 311,268 | [399] |
Fla. | 4,504,975 | 47.82% | – | 4,617,886 | 49.02% | 29 | 207,043 | 2.20% | – | 64,399 | 0.68% | – | – | – | – | 25,736 | 0.28% | – | 112,911 | 1.20% | 9,420,039 | [400] |
Ga. | 1,877,963 | 45.64% | – | 2,089,104 | 50.77% | 16 | 125,306 | 3.05% | – | 7,674 | 0.19% | – | 13,017 | 0.32% | – | 1,668 | 0.04% | – | 211,141 | 5.13% | 4,114,732 | [401][402] |
Hawaii | 266,891 | 62.22% | 3 | 128,847 | 30.03% | – | 15,954 | 3.72% | – | 12,737 | 2.97% | – | – | – | – | 4,508 | 1.05% | 1 | −138,044 | −32.18% | 428,937 | [403] |
Idaho | 189,765 | 27.49% | – | 409,055 | 59.26% | 4 | 28,331 | 4.10% | – | 8,496 | 1.23% | – | 46,476 | 6.73% | – | 8,132 | 1.18% | – | 219,290 | 31.77% | 690,255 | [404] |
Ill. | 3,090,729 | 55.83% | 20 | 2,146,015 | 38.76% | – | 209,596 | 3.79% | – | 76,802 | 1.39% | – | 11,655 | 0.21% | – | 1,627 | 0.03% | – | −944,714 | −17.06% | 5,536,424 | [405] |
Ind. | 1,033,126 | 37.91% | – | 1,557,286 | 56.82% | 11 | 133,993 | 4.89% | – | 7,841 | 0.27% | – | – | – | – | 2,712 | 0.10% | – | 524,160 | 19.17% | 2,734,958 | [406] |
Iowa | 653,669 | 41.74% | – | 800,983 | 51.15% | 6 | 59,186 | 3.78% | – | 11,479 | 0.73% | – | 12,366 | 0.79% | – | 28,348 | 1.81% | – | 147,314 | 9.41% | 1,566,031 | [407] |
Kan. | 427,005 | 36.05% | – | 671,018 | 56.65% | 6 | 55,406 | 4.68% | – | 23,506 | 1.98% | – | 6,520 | 0.55% | – | 947 | 0.08% | – | 244,013 | 20.60% | 1,184,402 | [408] |
Ky. | 628,854 | 32.68% | – | 1,202,971 | 62.52% | 8 | 53,752 | 2.79% | – | 13,913 | 0.72% | – | 22,780 | 1.18% | – | 1,879 | 0.10% | – | 574,177 | 29.84% | 1,924,149 | [409] |
La. | 780,154 | 38.45% | – | 1,178,638 | 58.09% | 8 | 37,978 | 1.87% | – | 14,031 | 0.69% | – | 8,547 | 0.42% | – | 9,684 | 0.48% | – | 398,484 | 19.64% | 2,029,032 | [410] |
Maine † | 357,735 | 47.83% | 2 | 335,593 | 44.87% | – | 38,105 | 5.09% | – | 14,251 | 1.91% | – | 1,887 | 0.25% | – | 356 | 0.05% | – | −22,142 | −2.96% | 747,927 | [411][412] |
ME-1 | 212,774 | 53.96% | 1 | 154,384 | 39.15% | – | 18,592 | 4.71% | – | 7,563 | 1.92% | – | 807 | 0.20% | – | 209 | 0.05% | – | −58,390 | −14.81% | 394,329 | |
ME-2 | 144,817 | 40.98% | – | 181,177 | 51.26% | 1 | 19,510 | 5.52% | – | 6,685 | 1.89% | – | 1,080 | 0.31% | – | 147 | 0.04% | – | 36,360 | 10.29% | 353,416 | |
Md. | 1,677,928 | 60.33% | 10 | 943,169 | 33.91% | – | 79,605 | 2.86% | – | 35,945 | 1.29% | – | 9,630 | 0.35% | – | 35,169 | 1.26% | – | −734,759 | −26.42% | 2,781,446 | [413] |
Mass. | 1,995,196 | 60.01% | 11 | 1,090,893 | 32.81% | – | 138,018 | 4.15% | – | 47,661 | 1.43% | – | 2,719 | 0.08% | – | 50,559 | 1.52% | – | −904,303 | −27.20% | 3,325,046 | [414] |
Mich. | 2,268,839 | 47.27% | – | 2,279,543 | 47.50% | 16 | 172,136 | 3.59% | – | 51,463 | 1.07% | – | 8,177 | 0.17% | – | 19,126 | 0.40% | – | 10,704 | 0.23% | 4,799,284 | [415] |
Minn. | 1,367,716 | 46.44% | 10 | 1,322,951 | 44.92% | – | 112,972 | 3.84% | – | 36,985 | 1.26% | – | 53,076 | 1.80% | – | 51,113 | 1.74% | – | −44,765 | −1.52% | 2,944,813 | [416] |
Miss. | 485,131 | 40.11% | – | 700,714 | 57.94% | 6 | 14,435 | 1.19% | – | 3,731 | 0.31% | – | – | – | – | 5,346 | 0.44% | – | 215,583 | 17.83% | 1,209,357 | [417] |
Mo. | 1,071,068 | 38.14% | – | 1,594,511 | 56.77% | 10 | 97,359 | 3.47% | – | 25,419 | 0.91% | – | 7,071 | 0.25% | – | 13,177 | 0.47% | – | 523,443 | 18.64% | 2,808,605 | [418] |
Mont. | 177,709 | 35.75% | – | 279,240 | 56.17% | 3 | 28,037 | 5.64% | – | 7,970 | 1.60% | – | 2,297 | 0.46% | – | 1,894 | 0.38% | – | 101,531 | 20.42% | 497,147 | [419][420] |
Nebr. † | 284,494 | 33.70% | – | 495,961 | 58.75% | 2 | 38,946 | 4.61% | – | 8,775 | 1.04% | – | – | – | – | 16,051 | 1.90% | – | 211,467 | 25.05% | 844,227 | [421] |
NE-1 | 100,132 | 35.46% | – | 158,642 | 56.18% | 1 | 14,033 | 4.97% | – | 3,374 | 1.19% | – | – | – | – | 6,181 | 2.19% | – | 58,500 | 20.72% | 282,338 | |
NE-2 | 131,030 | 44.92% | – | 137,564 | 47.16% | 1 | 13,245 | 4.54% | – | 3,347 | 1.15% | – | – | – | – | 6,494 | 2.23% | – | 6,534 | 2.24% | 291,680 | |
NE-3 | 53,332 | 19.73% | – | 199,755 | 73.92% | 1 | 11,668 | 4.32% | – | 2,054 | 0.76% | – | – | – | – | 3,451 | 1.28% | – | 146,367 | 54.19% | 270,109 | |
Nev. | 539,260 | 47.92% | 6 | 512,058 | 45.50% | – | 37,384 | 3.29% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 36,683 | 3.23% | – | −27,202 | −2.42% | 1,125,385 | [422] |
N.H. | 348,526 | 46.98% | 4 | 345,790 | 46.61% | – | 30,777 | 4.15% | – | 6,496 | 0.88% | – | 1,064 | 0.14% | – | 11,643 | 1.24% | – | −2,736 | −0.37% | 744,296 | [423] |
N.J. | 2,148,278 | 55.45% | 14 | 1,601,933 | 41.35% | – | 72,477 | 1.87% | – | 37,772 | 0.98% | – | – | – | – | 13,586 | 0.35% | – | −546,345 | −14.10% | 3,874,046 | [424] |
N.M. | 385,234 | 48.26% | 5 | 319,667 | 40.04% | – | 74,541 | 9.34% | – | 9,879 | 1.24% | – | 5,825 | 0.73% | – | 3,173 | 0.40% | – | −65,567 | −8.21% | 798,319 | [425] |
N.Y. | 4,556,124 | 59.01% | 29 | 2,819,534 | 36.52% | – | 176,598 | 2.29% | – | 107,934 | 1.40% | – | 10,373 | 0.13% | – | 50,890 | 0.66% | – | −1,736,590 | −22.49% | 7,721,453 | [426] |
N.C. | 2,189,316 | 46.17% | – | 2,362,631 | 49.83% | 15 | 130,126 | 2.74% | – | 12,105 | 0.26% | – | – | – | – | 47,386 | 1.00% | – | 173,315 | 3.66% | 4,741,564 | [427] |
N.D. | 93,758 | 27.23% | – | 216,794 | 62.96% | 3 | 21,434 | 6.22% | – | 3,780 | 1.10% | – | – | – | – | 8,594 | 2.49% | – | 123,036 | 35.73% | 344,360 | [428] |
Ohio | 2,394,164 | 43.56% | – | 2,841,005 | 51.69% | 18 | 174,498 | 3.17% | – | 46,271 | 0.84% | – | 12,574 | 0.23% | – | 27,975 | 0.51% | – | 446,841 | 8.13% | 5,496,487 | [429] |
Okla. | 420,375 | 28.93% | – | 949,136 | 65.32% | 7 | 83,481 | 5.75% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 528,761 | 37.08% | 1,452,992 | [430] |
Ore. | 1,002,106 | 50.07% | 7 | 782,403 | 39.09% | – | 94,231 | 4.71% | – | 50,002 | 2.50% | – | – | – | – | 72,594 | 3.63% | – | −219,703 | −10.98% | 2,001,336 | [431] |
Pa. | 2,926,441 | 47.46% | – | 2,970,733 | 48.18% | 20 | 146,715 | 2.38% | – | 49,941 | 0.81% | – | 6,472 | 0.11% | – | 65,176 | 1.06% | – | 44,292 | 0.72% | 6,165,478 | [432] |
R.I. | 252,525 | 54.41% | 4 | 180,543 | 38.90% | – | 14,746 | 3.18% | – | 6,220 | 1.34% | – | 516 | 0.11% | – | 9,594 | 2.07% | – | −71,982 | −15.51% | 464,144 | [433] |
S.C. | 855,373 | 40.67% | – | 1,155,389 | 54.94% | 9 | 49,204 | 2.34% | – | 13,034 | 0.62% | – | 21,016 | 1.00% | – | 9,011 | 0.43% | – | 300,016 | 14.27% | 2,103,027 | [434] |
S.D. | 117,458 | 31.74% | – | 227,721 | 61.53% | 3 | 20,850 | 5.63% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4,064 | 1.10% | – | 110,263 | 29.79% | 370,093 | [435] |
Tenn. | 870,695 | 34.72% | – | 1,522,925 | 60.72% | 11 | 70,397 | 2.81% | – | 15,993 | 0.64% | – | 11,991 | 0.48% | – | 16,026 | 0.64% | – | 652,230 | 26.01% | 2,508,027 | [436] |
Texas | 3,877,868 | 43.24% | – | 4,685,047 | 52.23% | 36 | 283,492 | 3.16% | – | 71,558 | 0.80% | – | 42,366 | 0.47% | – | 8,895 | 0.10% | 2 | 807,179 | 8.99% | 8,969,226 | [437] |
Utah | 310,676 | 27.46% | – | 515,231 | 45.54% | 6 | 39,608 | 3.50% | – | 9,438 | 0.83% | – | 243,690 | 21.54% | – | 12,787 | 1.13% | – | 204,555 | 18.08% | 1,131,430 | [438] |
Vt. | 178,573 | 56.68% | 3 | 95,369 | 30.27% | – | 10,078 | 3.20% | – | 6,758 | 2.14% | – | 639 | 0.20% | – | 23,650 | 7.51% | – | −83,204 | −26.41% | 315,067 | [439] |
Va. | 1,981,473 | 49.73% | 13 | 1,769,443 | 44.41% | – | 118,274 | 2.97% | – | 27,638 | 0.69% | – | 54,054 | 1.36% | – | 33,749 | 0.85% | – | −212,030 | −5.32% | 3,984,631 | [440] |
Wash. | 1,742,718 | 52.54% | 8 | 1,221,747 | 36.83% | – | 160,879 | 4.85% | – | 58,417 | 1.76% | – | – | – | – | 133,258 | 4.02% | 4 | −520,971 | −15.71% | 3,317,019 | [441] |
W.Va. | 188,794 | 26.43% | – | 489,371 | 68.50% | 5 | 23,004 | 3.22% | – | 8,075 | 1.13% | – | 1,104 | 0.15% | – | 4,075 | 0.57% | – | 300,577 | 42.07% | 714,423 | [442] |
Wis. | 1,382,536 | 46.45% | – | 1,405,284 | 47.22% | 10 | 106,674 | 3.58% | – | 31,072 | 1.04% | – | 11,855 | 0.40% | – | 38,729 | 1.30% | – | 22,748 | 0.77% | 2,976,150 | [443] |
Wyo. | 55,973 | 21.88% | – | 174,419 | 68.17% | 3 | 13,287 | 5.19% | – | 2,515 | 0.98% | – | – | – | – | 9,655 | 3.78% | – | 118,446 | 46.29% | 255,849 | [444] |
Total | 65,853,516 | 48.18% | 227 | 62,984,825 | 46.09% | 304 | 4,489,221 | 3.28% | – | 1,457,216 | 1.07% | – | 731,788 | 0.54% | – | 1,152,671 | 0.84% | 7 | −2,868,691 | −2.10% | 136,669,237 | |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Evan McMullin Independent |
Others | Margin | Total votes |
Note that two states (Maine[a] and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates by congressional districts. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.[446][447] Results are from The New York Times.[448]
Battleground states

Most media outlets announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to Election Day. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, Larry Sabato listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the general election. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.[449]
Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as Colorado and Virginia, were expected to shift towards Clinton.[450] By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump, as many of them were considered to be part of the "blue wall" of Democratic-leaning states. Trump's courting of the Polish-American vote, a sizable number of whom were Reagan Democrats, has been cited as the cause for the loss of the Rust Belt by the Democratic nominee.[451] According to Politico[452] and FiveThirtyEight, his path to victory went through states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.[453][454][455][456]
Early polling indicated a closer-than-usual race in former Democratic strongholds such as Washington, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine (for the two statewide electoral votes), and New Mexico.[457][458][459]
A consensus among political pundits developed throughout the primary election season regarding swing states.[460] From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe electoral vote count of about 150 to 200.[461][462] However, the margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts.[463][464] It was thought that left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump had strong appeal among many blue-collar workers.[465] They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.[466]
Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.[467][468] Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included Nebraska's second congressional district, Georgia, and Arizona.[469] Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees.[470] However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations.[471][472] Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state.[473] The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.[474]
As the parameters of the race established themselves, analysts converged on a narrower list of contested states, which were relatively similar to those of recent elections. On November 7, the Cook Political Report categorized Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as states with close races. Additionally, a district from each of Maine and Nebraska were considered to be coin flips.[475] Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight listed twenty-two states as potentially competitive about a month before the election—Maine's two at-large electoral votes, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Missouri, and Utah—as well as Maine's second and Nebraska's second congressional districts.[476] Nate Silver, the publication's editor-in-chief, subsequently removed Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana from the list after the race tightened significantly.[477] These conclusions were supported by models such as the Princeton Elections Consortium, the New York Times Upshot, and punditry evaluations from Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report.[478][479][480][481]
Hillary Clinton won states like New Mexico by less than 10 percentage points.[482] Among the states where the candidates finished at a margin of within seven percent, Clinton won Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10), and New Hampshire (4). On the other hand, Trump won Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nebraska's second district (1), and Georgia (16). States won by Obama in the 2012, such as Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and Maine's second district (1), were also won by Trump. The close result in Maine was not expected by most commentators, nor were Trump's victory of over 10 points in the second district and their disparities.[483][484][485] The dramatic shift of Midwestern states towards Trump were contrasted in the media against the relative movement of Southern states towards the Democrats.[486] For example, former Democratic strongholds such as Minnesota and Maine leaned towards the GOP while still voting Democratic, albeit by smaller margins. Meanwhile, Iowa voted more Republican than Texas did, Georgia was more Democratic than Ohio, and the margin of victory for Trump was greater in North Carolina than Arizona.[487][488] Trump's smaller victories in Alaska and Utah also took some experts by surprise.[489]
Close states
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):
- Michigan, 0.23% (10,704 votes) – 16 electoral votes
- New Hampshire, 0.37% (2,736 votes) – 4 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania, 0.72% (44,292 votes) – 20 electoral votes (tipping point state, including two faithless GOP electors)[490]
- Wisconsin, 0.77% (22,748 votes) – 10 electoral votes (tipping point state, excluding the two faithless GOP electors)[490]
States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):
- Florida, 1.20% (112,911 votes) – 29 electoral votes
- Minnesota, 1.52% (44,765 votes) – 10 electoral votes
- Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 2.24% (6,534 votes) – 1 electoral vote
- Nevada, 2.42% (27,202 votes) – 6 electoral votes
- Maine, 2.96% (22,142 votes) – 2 electoral votes
- Arizona, 3.50% (91,234 votes) – 11 electoral votes
- North Carolina, 3.66% (173,315 votes) – 15 electoral votes
- Colorado, 4.91% (136,386 votes) – 9 electoral votes
States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (94 electoral votes; 76 won by Trump, 18 by Clinton):
- Georgia, 5.16% (211,141 votes) – 16 electoral votes
- Virginia, 5.32% (212,030 votes) – 13 electoral votes
- Ohio, 8.13% (446,841 votes) – 18 electoral votes
- New Mexico, 8.21% (65,567 votes) – 5 electoral votes
- Texas, 8.99% (807,179 votes) – 38 electoral votes
- Iowa, 9.41% (147,314 votes) – 6 electoral votes
Red denotes states or congressional districts won by Republican Donald Trump; blue denotes those won by Democrat Hillary Clinton.
County statistics
Counties with highest percentage of Republican vote:[491]
- Roberts County, Texas 94.58%
- King County, Texas 93.71%
- Motley County, Texas 92.03%
- Hayes County, Nebraska 91.83%
- Shackelford County, Texas 91.62%
Counties with highest percentage of Democratic vote:
- Washington, D.C. 90.86%
- Bronx County, New York 88.52%
- Prince George's County, Maryland 88.13%
- Petersburg, Virginia 87.20%
- Claiborne County, Mississippi 86.80%
Maps
A discontinuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election
A continuous cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election
A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using squares
A discretized cartogram of the 2016 United States presidential election using hexagons
Voter demographics
Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day, in addition to 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters.[492] Trump's crucial victories in the Midwest were aided in large part by his strong margins among non-college whites — while Obama lost those voters by a margin of 10 points in 2012, Clinton lost this group by 20 percent. The election also represented the first time that Republicans performed better among lower-income whites than among affluent white voters.[493] Clinton however had the majority amongst lower-income Americans overall.
Trump narrowed Clinton's margin compared to Obama by seven points among blacks and African-Americans, eight points among Latinos, and 11 points among Asian-Americans. Meanwhile, Trump increased his lead with non-Hispanic white voters through one percent over Mitt Romney’s performance, and American Indians, Alaska Natives, and Pacific Islanders shifted their support towards the Republican candidate using the same relative amount.[494] Additionally, although 74 percent of Muslim voters supported Clinton, Trump nearly doubled his support among those voters compared to Mitt Romney at 13 percent, according to the Council on American–Islamic Relations exit poll.[495]
However, “more convincing data”[496] from the polling firm Latino Decisions indicates that Clinton received a higher share of the Hispanic vote, and Trump a lower share, than the Edison exit polls showed. Using wider, more geographically and linguistically representative sampling, Latino Decisions concluded that Clinton won 79% of Hispanic voters (also an improvement over Obama's share in 2008 and 2012), while Trump won only 18% (lower than previous Republicans such as Romney and McCain).[497] Additionally, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study found that Clinton's share of the Hispanic vote was one percentage point higher than Obama's in 2012, while Trump's was seven percentage points lower than Romney's.[498]
Similarly, a large, multi-lingual study by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund found that Clinton won 79% of Asian-American voters, higher than the Edison exit poll showed, while Trump won only 18%, a decrease from McCain's and Romney's numbers.[499] Furthermore, according to the AALDEF's report, Trump received merely 2% of the Muslim-American vote, whereas Clinton received 97%.[500] The low percentage of Muslim votes for Trump may have been influenced by much of his rhetoric during the campaign regarding Muslims and Islam. The issue of islamophobia was demonstrated to be an important political issue for Muslim voters; an ISPU study done in 2016 found that, “...outside the issues of discrimination and Islamophobia there aren't, like, one or two big issues that unite all Muslims.”[501]
2016 presidential election by demographic subgroup (Edison Exit Polling)[492] | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Clinton | Trump | Other | % of total vote | |||
Total vote | 48 | 46 | 6 | 100 | |||
Ideology | |||||||
Liberals | 84 | 10 | 6 | 26 | |||
Moderates | 52 | 41 | 7 | 39 | |||
Conservatives | 15 | 81 | 4 | 35 | |||
Party | |||||||
Democrats | 89 | 9 | 2 | 37 | |||
Republicans | 7 | 90 | 3 | 33 | |||
Independents | 41 | 47 | 12 | 31 | |||
Party by gender | |||||||
Democratic men | 87 | 10 | 3 | 14 | |||
Democratic women | 90 | 8 | 2 | 23 | |||
Republican men | 6 | 90 | 4 | 17 | |||
Republican women | 9 | 89 | 2 | 16 | |||
Independent men | 37 | 51 | 12 | 17 | |||
Independent women | 46 | 43 | 11 | 14 | |||
Gender | |||||||
Men | 41 | 52 | 7 | 47 | |||
Women | 54 | 41 | 5 | 53 | |||
Marital status | |||||||
Married | 44 | 52 | 4 | 59 | |||
Unmarried | 55 | 37 | 8 | 41 | |||
Gender by marital status | |||||||
Married men | 37 | 58 | 5 | 29 | |||
Married women | 49 | 47 | 4 | 30 | |||
Non-married men | 46 | 45 | 9 | 19 | |||
Non-married women | 61 | 32 | 7 | 23 | |||
Race/ethnicity | |||||||
White | 37 | 57 | 6 | 70 | |||
Black | 88 | 8 | 4 | 12 | |||
Asian | 65 | 29 | 6 | 4 | |||
Other | 56 | 37 | 7 | 3 | |||
Hispanic (of any race) | 65 | 29 | 6 | 11 | |||
Gender by race/ethnicity | |||||||
White men | 31 | 62 | 7 | 34 | |||
White women | 43 | 52 | 5 | 37 | |||
Black men | 80 | 13 | 7 | 5 | |||
Black women | 94 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |||
Latino men (of any race) | 62 | 32 | 6 | 5 | |||
Latina women (of any race) | 68 | 26 | 6 | 6 | |||
All other races | 61 | 32 | 7 | 6 | |||
Religion | |||||||
Protestant | 37 | 59 | 4 | 27 | |||
Catholic | 45 | 52 | 3 | 23 | |||
Mormon | 25 | 59 | 16 | 1 | |||
Other Christian | 41 | 55 | 4 | 24 | |||
Jewish | 71 | 24 | 5 | 3 | |||
Other religion | 58 | 31 | 11 | 7 | |||
None | 67 | 26 | 7 | 15 | |||
Religious service attendance | |||||||
Weekly or more | 40 | 54 | 6 | 33 | |||
Monthly | 46 | 49 | 5 | 16 | |||
A few times a year | 48 | 46 | 6 | 29 | |||
Never | 62 | 31 | 7 | 22 | |||
White evangelical or born-again Christian | |||||||
White evangelical or born-again Christian | 16 | 81 | 3 | 26 | |||
Everyone else | 58 | 35 | 7 | 74 | |||
Age | |||||||
18–24 years old | 56 | 35 | 9 | 10 | |||
25–29 years old | 53 | 39 | 8 | 9 | |||
30–39 years old | 51 | 40 | 9 | 17 | |||
40–49 years old | 46 | 49 | 5 | 19 | |||
50–64 years old | 44 | 53 | 3 | 30 | |||
65 and older | 45 | 53 | 2 | 15 | |||
Age by race | |||||||
Whites 18–29 years old | 43 | 47 | 10 | 12 | |||
Whites 30–44 years old | 37 | 54 | 9 | 16 | |||
Whites 45–64 years old | 34 | 62 | 4 | 30 | |||
Whites 65 and older | 39 | 58 | 3 | 13 | |||
Blacks 18–29 years old | 85 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |||
Blacks 30–44 years old | 89 | 7 | 4 | 4 | |||
Blacks 45–64 years old | 89 | 7 | 4 | 5 | |||
Blacks 65 and older | 91 | 9 | n/a | 1 | |||
Latinos 18–29 years old | 67 | 26 | 7 | 3 | |||
Latinos 30–44 years old | 65 | 28 | 7 | 4 | |||
Latinos 45–64 years old | 64 | 32 | 4 | 4 | |||
Latinos 65 and older | 73 | 25 | 2 | 1 | |||
Others | 61 | 32 | 7 | 6 | |||
Sexual orientation | |||||||
LGBT | 78 | 14 | 8 | 5 | |||
Heterosexual | 47 | 48 | 5 | 95 | |||
First time voter | |||||||
First time voter | 54 | 39 | 7 | 10 | |||
Everyone else | 47 | 47 | 6 | 90 | |||
Education | |||||||
High school or less | 44 | 51 | 5 | 18 | |||
Some college education | 42 | 52 | 6 | 32 | |||
College graduate | 49 | 45 | 6 | 32 | |||
Postgraduate education | 58 | 36 | 6 | 18 | |||
Education by race/ethnicity | |||||||
White college graduates | 45 | 49 | 6 | 37 | |||
White no college degree | 28 | 67 | 5 | 34 | |||
Non-white college graduates | 71 | 22 | 7 | 13 | |||
Non-white no college degree | 75 | 20 | 5 | 16 | |||
Education by race/ethnicity/sex | |||||||
White women with college degrees | 51 | 45 | 4 | 20 | |||
White men with college degrees | 39 | 53 | 8 | 17 | |||
White women without college degrees | 34 | 61 | 5 | 17 | |||
White men without college degrees | 23 | 71 | 6 | 16 | |||
Non-whites | 74 | 21 | 5 | 29 | |||
Family income | |||||||
Under $30,000 | 53 | 41 | 6 | 17 | |||
$30,000–49,999 | 51 | 42 | 7 | 19 | |||
$50,000–99,999 | 46 | 48 | 6 | 31 | |||
$100,000–199,999 | 47 | 48 | 5 | 24 | |||
$200,000–249,999 | 48 | 49 | 3 | 4 | |||
Over $250,000 | 46 | 48 | 6 | 6 | |||
Union households | |||||||
Union | 51 | 42 | 7 | 18 | |||
Non-union | 46 | 48 | 6 | 82 | |||
Military service | |||||||
Veterans | 34 | 60 | 6 | 13 | |||
Non-veterans | 50 | 44 | 6 | 87 | |||
Issue regarded as most important | |||||||
Foreign Policy | 52 | 34 | 14 | 13 | |||
Immigration | 32 | 64 | 4 | 13 | |||
Economy | 52 | 42 | 6 | 52 | |||
Terrorism | 39 | 57 | 4 | 18 | |||
Region | |||||||
Northeast | 55 | 40 | 5 | 19 | |||
Midwest | 44 | 49 | 7 | 23 | |||
South | 44 | 52 | 4 | 37 | |||
West | 53 | 39 | 8 | 21 | |||
Community size | |||||||
Cities (population 50,000 and above) | 59 | 35 | 6 | 34 | |||
Suburbs | 45 | 49 | 6 | 49 | |||
Rural areas | 32 | 62 | 6 | 17 |
Viewership
The 2016 election was highly-viewed, setting viewership records on CNN and Fox News. Over 28 million people watched the election on cable television, with 63.99 million viewers including broadcast television. While more highly-viewed than 2012 (60.86 million viewers), it was less viewed than 2008 (71.5 million viewers).[502]
Legend
|
Total television viewers
|
Total cable TV viewers
|
Cable TV viewers 25 to 54
|
Comparison to polls and other forecasts

Hillary Clinton | 216 |
Donald Trump | 184 |
Margin of error between Clinton and Trump | 134 |
No data | 4 |
Various methods were used to forecast the outcome of the 2016 election.[503] There were many competing election forecast approaches including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at The New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales, PollyVote, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Electoral-Vote. These models mostly showed a Democratic advantage since the nominees were confirmed, and were supported by pundits and statisticians, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn at The New York Times, and Larry Sabato from the Crystal Ball newsletter, who predicted a Democratic victory in competitive presidential races and projected consistent leads in several battleground states around the country.[504] The near-unanimity of forecasters in predicting a Clinton victory may have been the result of groupthink. However, FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in the final weeks based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania. This was due to the demographics targeted by Trump's campaign which lived in big numbers there, in addition to Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated traditionally 'blue' states, but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red', like Texas, which were projected safe for Trump.[505]
Early exit polls generally favored Clinton.[506] After the polls closed and some of the results came in, the forecasts were found to be inaccurate, as Trump performed better in the competitive Midwestern states, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, than expected. Three states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) which were considered to be part of Clinton's firewall, were won by Trump.[506] Of the states in the Great Lakes region, Clinton won the swing state of Minnesota by one point, as well as traditional Democratic strongholds such as New York and Illinois with populous urban centers. This result stands in contrast to that of 2012, when President Barack Obama won all but Indiana, which he carried in 2008. This table displays the final polling average published by Real Clear Politics on November 7, the actual electoral margin, and the over-performance by either candidate relative to the polls.
State | Electoral votes |
Polling average | Final result | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | 11 | Trump +4[507] | Trump +3.5 | Clinton +0.5 |
Colorado | 9 | Clinton +2.9[508] | Clinton +4.9 | Clinton +2 |
Florida | 29 | Trump +0.2[509] | Trump +1.2 | Trump +1 |
Georgia | 16 | Trump +4.8[510] | Trump +5.1 | Trump +0.3 |
Iowa | 6 | Trump +3[511] | Trump +9.5 | Trump +6.5 |
Maine | 4 | Clinton +4.5[512] | Clinton +2.9 | Trump +1.6 |
Michigan | 16 | Clinton +3.4[513] | Trump +0.3 | Trump +3.7 |
Minnesota | 10 | Clinton +6.2[514] | Clinton +1.5 | Trump +4.7 |
Nevada | 6 | Trump +0.8[515] | Clinton +2.4 | Clinton +3.2 |
New Hampshire | 4 | Clinton +0.6[516] | Clinton +0.3 | Trump +0.3 |
New Mexico | 5 | Clinton +5[517] | Clinton +8.3 | Clinton +3.3 |
North Carolina | 15 | Trump +1[518] | Trump +3.7 | Trump +2.7 |
Ohio | 18 | Trump +3.5[519] | Trump +8.1 | Trump +4.6 |
Pennsylvania | 20 | Clinton +1.9[520] | Trump +0.7 | Trump +2.6 |
Virginia | 13 | Clinton +5[521] | Clinton +5.4 | Clinton +0.4 |
Wisconsin | 10 | Clinton +6.5[522] | Trump +0.7 | Trump +7.2 |
Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election.[523][524] Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[525][526] Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error.[527] Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.[528] According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)," whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.[529] Political scientist Lloyd Gruber said, "One of the major casualties of the 2016 election season has been the reputation of political science, a discipline whose practitioners had largely dismissed Donald Trump's chances of gaining the Republican nomination."[530] Trump said that he was surprised, and added "I always used to believe in [polls]. I don't believe them anymore."[362]
FiveThirtyEight's final polls-plus forecast predicted 18 states, plus the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, with an interval of confidence lower than 90%.[531][532] However, every major forecaster, including FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times Upshot, prediction markets aggregator PredictWise, ElectionBettingOdds from Maxim Lott and John Stossel, the DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, the Huffington Post, the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Rothenberg and Gonzales Report, called every state the same way (although Cook and Rothenberg-Gonzales left two and five states as toss-ups, respectively). The lone exception was Maine's 2nd congressional district. Of the forecasters who published results on the district, the Times gave Trump a 64% chance of winning and PredictWise a 52% chance, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 51% chance of winning in polls-only and 54% in polls-plus, Princeton gave her a 60% chance, Cook labelled it a toss-up, and Sabato leaned it towards Trump.[105] The following table displays the final winning probabilities given by each outlet, along with the final electoral result. The states shown have been identified by Politico,[533] WhipBoard,[534] The New York Times,[535] and the Crystal Ball as battlegrounds.
State | The New York Times Upshot[535] | FiveThirtyEight[535] | PredictWise[535] | Princeton Election Consortium[535] | Sabato's Crystal Ball[535] | 2012 margin | 2016 margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska | 83% R | 76% R | 94% R | 96% R | Likely R | 14 R | 15 R |
Arizona | 84% R | 67% R | 82% R | 91% R | Lean R | 9 R | 4 R |
Colorado | 89% D | 78% D | 95% D | 96% D | Likely D | 5 D | 5 D |
Florida | 67% D | 55% D | 77% D | 69% D | Lean D | 1 D | 1 R |
Georgia | 83% R | 79% R | 91% R | 88% R | Likely R | 8 R | 6 R |
Iowa | 62% R | 70% R | 79% R | 74% R | Lean R | 6 D | 10 R |
Maine (statewide) | 91% D | 83% D | 98% D | 98% D | Likely D | 15 D | 3 D |
Maine (CD-2) | 64% R | 51% D | 52% R | 60% D | Lean R | 9 D | 10 R |
Michigan | 94% D | 79% D | 95% D | 79% D | Lean D | 9 D | 1 R |
Minnesota | 94% D | 85% D | 99% D | 98% D | Likely D | 8 D | 2 D |
Nebraska (CD-2) | 80% R | 56% R | 75% R | 92% R | Lean R | 7 R | 3 R |
New Mexico | 95% D | 83% D | 98% D | 91% D | Likely D | 10 D | 8 D |
Nevada | 68% D | 58% D | 91% D | 84% D | Lean D | 7 D | 2 D |
New Hampshire | 79% D | 70% D | 84% D | 63% D | Lean D | 6 D | 1 D |
North Carolina | 64% D | 56% D | 66% D | 67% D | Lean D | 2 R | 4 R |
Ohio | 54% R | 65% R | 67% R | 63% R | Lean R | 3 D | 9 R |
Pennsylvania | 89% D | 77% D | 93% D | 79% D | Lean D | 5 D | 1 R |
Utah | 73% R | 83% R | 86% R | 99% R | Lean R | 48 R | 18 R |
Virginia | 96% D | 86% D | 98% D | 98% D | Likely D | 4 D | 5 D |
Wisconsin | 93% D | 84% D | 98% D | 98% D | Likely D | 7 D | 1 R |
Post-election events and controversies
Trump's victory, considered unlikely by most forecasts,[536][537][538][539][540] was characterized as an "upset" and as "shocking" by the media.[541][542][543][544] Trump himself thought he would lose even as the polls were closing.[545]
Protests
Following the announcement of Trump's election, large protests broke out across the United States with some continuing for several days.[546][547][548][549]
Protesters have held up a number of different signs and chanted various shouts including "Not my president" and "We don't accept the president-elect."[550][546] The movement organized on Twitter under the hashtags #Antitrump and #NotMyPresident.[551][552]
High school and college students walked out of classes to protest.[553] At a few protests fires were lit, flags and other items were burned and people yelled derogatory remarks about Trump. Rioters also broke glass at certain locations.[554][555] Celebrities such as Madonna, Cher, and Lady Gaga took part in New York.[556][557][558] Kendrick Lamar's song "Alright" was used repeatedly by protestors, despite the movement receiving no endorsement from Lamar himself.[559][560][561] Some protesters took to blocking freeways in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Portland, Oregon, and were dispersed by police in the early hours of the morning.[562][563] In a number of cities, protesters were dispersed with rubber bullets, pepper spray and bean-bags fired by police.[564][565][566] In New York City, calls were made to continue the protests over the coming days after the election.[567] Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti expressed understanding of the protests and praised those who peacefully wanted to make their voices heard.[568]
Vote tampering concerns
After the election, computer scientists, including J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, urged the Clinton campaign to request an election recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (three swing states where Trump had won narrowly) for the purpose of excluding the possibility that the hacking of electronic voting machines had influenced the recorded outcome.[569][570][571] However, statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level."[572] On November 25, 2016, the Obama administration said the results from November 8 "accurately reflect the will of the American people."[573] The following day, the White House released another statement, saying: "the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day."[574]
Donald Trump and New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu both complained that liberal voters from Massachusetts were illegally bused into New Hampshire for the 2016 election, and Scott Brown blamed the same phenomenon for losing his senate race in 2014.[575] The New Hampshire Secretary of State and New Hampshire Department of Justice issued a report in 2018 regarding complaints of voters being bused in from Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts for the 2016 election. They found that in every case, field inspectors were able to determine that the voters were from New Hampshire, though they were riding a bus operated by an out-of-state company (which has its name and address written on the outside of the bus, presumably the source of the confusion).[575] Out of 743,000 votes cast, four were determined to be cast illegally, either because the voters were told to go to the wrong location, or because the voter believed they were able to vote in each town in which they owned property.[575] Out of about 6,000 same-day voter registrations in the state, the report says only 66 voters could not have their residency confirmed (though fraud is not the only explanation for such a failure).[575]
Recount petitions
On November 23, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein launched a public fundraiser to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asserting that the election's outcome had been affected by hacking in those states; Stein did not provide evidence for her claims.[576][577] Changing the outcome of these three states would make Clinton the winner, and this would require showing that fewer than 60,000 votes had been counted for Trump which should have been counted for Clinton. Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on November 25,[578] after which Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias said their campaign would join Stein's recount efforts in that state and possibly others "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides."[386][579] Stein subsequently filed for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28,[580] and in Michigan on November 30.[581] Concurrently, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente sought and was granted a partial recount in Nevada that was unrelated to Stein's efforts.[388]
President-elect Donald Trump issued a statement denouncing Stein's Wisconsin recount request saying, "The people have spoken and the election is over." Trump further commented that the recount "is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded."[582] The Trump campaign and Republican Party officials moved to block Stein's three recount efforts through state and federal courts.[583][584]
U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered a halt to the recount in Michigan on December 7, dissolving a previous temporary restraining order against the Michigan Board of Elections that allowed the recount to continue, stating in his order: "Plaintiffs have not presented evidence of tampering or mistake. Instead, they present speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery—but not actual injury."[585] On December 12, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond rejected an appeal by the Green Party and Jill Stein to force a recount in Pennsylvania, stating that suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" and that granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given the December 13, 2016, federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College.[586] Meanwhile, the Wisconsin recount was allowed to continue as it was nearing completion and had uncovered no significant irregularities.[587]
The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies.[588][589] A partial recount of Michigan ballot found some precinct imbalances in Detroit, which were corrected. A subsequent state audit found no evidence of voter fraud and concluded that the mistakes, which were "almost entirely" caused by poll-worker mistakes attributed to poor training, did not impair "the ability of Detroit residents to cast a ballot and have their vote counted."[590] The overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.[588][589][591]
Electoral College lobbying
Intense lobbying (in one case involving claims of harassment and death threats)[592] and grass-roots campaigns were directed at various GOP electors of the United States Electoral College[593] to convince a sufficient number of them (37) to not vote for Trump, thus precluding a Trump presidency.[594] Members of the Electoral College themselves started a campaign for other members to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68.[595][596][597][598] Former candidate Lawrence Lessig and attorney Laurence Tribe established The Electors Trust on December 5 under the aegis of Equal Citizens to provide pro bono legal counsel as well as a secure communications platform for members of the Electoral College who were considering a vote of conscience against Trump.[599]
On December 6, Colorado Secretary of State Wayne W. Williams castigated Democratic electors who had filed a lawsuit in Federal court to have the state law binding them to the popular vote (in their case for Hillary Clinton) overturned.[600]
On December 10, ten electors, in an open letter headed by Christine Pelosi to the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, demanded an intelligence briefing[601][602] in light of Russian interference in the election to help Trump win the presidency.[603] Fifty-eight additional electors subsequently added their names to the letter,[602] bringing the total to 68 electors from 17 different states.[604] On December 16, the briefing request was denied.[605]
On December 19, several electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton. A further three electors attempted to vote against Clinton but were replaced or forced to vote again. The 115th United States Congress officially certified the results on January 6, 2017.[606][607]
Faithless electors
In the Electoral College vote on December 19, for the first time since 1808, multiple faithless electors voted against their pledged qualified presidential candidate.[b] Five Democrats rebelled in Washington and Hawaii, while two Republicans rebelled in Texas.[608] Two Democratic electors, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado, were replaced after voting for Bernie Sanders and John Kasich, respectively.[609][610] Electors in Maine conducted a second vote after one of its members voted for Sanders; the elector then voted for Clinton.[611] Likewise, for the first time since 1896,[c] multiple faithless electors voted against the pledged qualified vice presidential candidate.
- One Clinton elector in Colorado attempted to vote for John Kasich.[612] The single vote was ruled invalid by Colorado state law, the elector was dismissed, and an alternative elector was sworn in who voted for Clinton.[613][610]
- One Clinton elector in Minnesota voted for Bernie Sanders as president and Tulsi Gabbard as vice president; his votes were discarded and he was replaced by an alternate who voted for Clinton.[613]
- One Clinton elector in Maine voted for Bernie Sanders; this vote was invalidated as "improper" and the elector subsequently voted for Clinton.[613]
- Four Clinton electors in Washington did not vote for Clinton (three votes went to Colin Powell, and one to Faith Spotted Eagle).[614]
- One Trump elector in Georgia resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[615]
- Two Trump electors in Texas did not vote for Trump (one vote went to John Kasich, one to Ron Paul); one elector did not vote for Pence and instead voted for Carly Fiorina for vice-president; a third resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[614]
- One Clinton elector in Hawaii voted for Bernie Sanders.[616]
Of the faithless votes, Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren were the only two to receive more than one; Powell received three electoral votes for president and Warren received two for vice president. Receiving one valid electoral vote each were Sanders, John Kasich, Ron Paul and Faith Spotted Eagle for president, and Carly Fiorina, Susan Collins, Winona LaDuke and Maria Cantwell for vice president. Sanders is the first Jewish American to receive an electoral vote for president. LaDuke is the first Green Party member to receive an electoral vote, and Paul is the third member of the Libertarian Party to do so, following the party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees each getting one vote in 1972. It is the first election with faithless electors from more than one political party. The seven people to receive electoral votes for president were the most in a single election since 1796.
State | Party | Presidential vote | Vice presidential vote | Name of Elector | References |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nationwide | Donald Trump, 304 | Mike Pence, 305 | Pledged | ||
Hillary Clinton, 227 | Tim Kaine, 227 | ||||
Hawaii | Bernie Sanders (I-VT) | Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) | David Mulinix | [617] | |
Texas | John Kasich (R-OH) | Carly Fiorina (R-VA) | Christopher Suprun | [618][619] | |
Ron Paul (L-TX / R-TX) | Mike Pence (as pledged) | Bill Greene | [618][550] | ||
Washington | Colin Powell (R-VA)[623] | Maria Cantwell (D-WA) | Levi Guerra | [624][625] | |
Susan Collins (R-ME) | Esther John | [105][624] | |||
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) | Bret Chiafalo | [105][624] | |||
Faith Spotted Eagle (D-SD)[626] | Winona LaDuke (G-MN) | Robert Satiacum, Jr. | [105][624][627] |
Handling of illegal votes
Critics alleged racial bias after comparing the different sentences handed down to two white people and one black person who were convicted of attempting to vote illegally in the 2016 presidential election.[628]
See also
- History of the United States (2008–present)
- Inauguration of Donald Trump
- 2016 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2016 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2016 United States Senate elections
Notes
- ^ Maine split its electoral votes for the first time since 1828.[445]
- ^ The 1872 presidential election also saw multiple electors vote for a different candidate than that pledged, due to the death of Liberal Republican candidate Horace Greeley, after the popular vote, yet before the meeting of the Electoral College. Greeley still garnered three posthumous electoral votes which were subsequently dismissed by Congress.
- ^ Not including 1912, because of the death of James S. Sherman.
- ^ In every presidential election from 1788–89 through 1828, multiple state legislatures selected their presidential electors by direct appointment rather than conducting a statewide poll, while the South Carolina General Assembly did so in every presidential election through 1860 and the Colorado General Assembly selected its state's electors by direct appointment in the 1876 election.
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States that allow write-ins in the general election, and don't have write-in filing laws, are legally obliged to count all write-ins: Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont ... Only one state, South Carolina, has a law that says that although write-ins in general elections are permitted, they are not permitted for president.
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it makes all the political sense in the world for Mrs. Clinton to ignore them
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The remarks also remind of inflammatory remarks in recent presidential elections on both sides—from Barack Obama's assertion in 2008 that people in small towns are "bitter" and "cling to guns or religion," to Mitt Romney's 2012 statement that 47 percent of Americans vote for Democrats because they are "dependent upon government" and believe they are "victims," to his vice presidential pick Paul Ryan's comment that the country is divided between "makers and takers."
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Prof. Jennifer Mercieca, an expert in American political discourse at Texas A&M University, said in an email that the "deplorable" comment "sounds bad on the face of it" and compared it to Mr. Romney's 47 percent gaffe. "The comment demonstrates that she (like Romney) lacks empathy for that group," Professor Mercieca said.
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