2004年フィリピン大統領選挙

2004年フィリピン大統領選挙

←  1998 2004年5月10日 2010  →
消す	76.3％10.2％
候補者 グロリア・マカパガル・アロヨ フェルナンドポージュニア パンフィロラクソン パーティ ラカス KNP LDP（アキノウィング） ランニングメイト ノリ・デ・カストロ ローレン・レガルダ 該当なし 人気投票 12,905,808 11,782,232 3,510,080 パーセンテージ 39.99％ 36.51％ 10.88％   候補者 ラウル・ロッコ エディ・ビジャヌエバ パーティ Aksyon バンゴンフィリピン ランニングメイト ヘルミニオ・アキノ 該当なし 人気投票 2,082,762 1,988,218 パーセンテージ 6.45％ 6.16％
州/市ごとの結果：色は、州/市で最も多くの票を獲得した候補者を示します。
選挙前の大統領 グロリア・マカパガル・アロヨ・ ラカス 選出された大統領 グロリア・マカパガル・アロヨ・ ラカス

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The Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections of 2004 were held on Monday, May 10, 2004. In the presidential election, incumbent president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a full six-year term as President, with a margin of just over one million votes over her leading opponent, highly popular movie actor Fernando Poe, Jr.

The elections were notable for several reasons. This election first saw the implementation of the Overseas Absentee Voting Act of 2003 (see Wikisource), which enabled Filipinos in over 70 countries to vote. This is also the first election since the 1986 People Power Revolution where an incumbent president ran for re-election. Under the 1987 Constitution, an elected president cannot run for another term. However, Arroyo was not elected president, but instead succeeded ousted President Joseph Estrada, who was impeached with charges of plunder and corruption in 2000 and later convicted of plunder (but received conditional pardon from Arroyo).

さらに、今回の選挙は、1986年以来、勝利した大統領と副大統領の両方が同じ党/連立の下にあったのは初めてでした。2016年の時点で、これはこの属性を持つ最新の選挙でもあります。

この選挙はまた、深刻な政治的二極化を特徴とする現代フィリピンでも開催されました。その結果、1992年と1998年の選挙と比較して、大統領選挙と副大統領選挙の候補者が少なくなりました。

背景

The political climate leading up to the 2004 elections was one of the most emotional in the country's history since the 1986 elections that resulted in the exile of Ferdinand Marcos. Philippine society has become polarized between the followers of former president Joseph Estrada who have thrown their support for Estrada's close associate Fernando Poe, Jr. and those who support incumbent Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, or at best oppose Estrada.

The several months leading to the May elections saw several presidential scandals, Arroyo reversing her earlier decision not to run for president, the sudden but not unexpected candidacy of Fernando Poe, Jr., defection of key political figures from the Arroyo camp to the opposition, the controversial automated elections initiative of the COMELEC, and the split of the dominant opposition party, Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, between Poe and Panfilo Lacson.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's candidacy

On a speech given on Rizal Day, December 30, 2002, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared that she would not run in the 2004 elections. She said that withdrawing from the race would relieve her of the burden of politics and allow her administration to devote the last year and half to the following:

First, strengthening the economy to create more jobs and to encourage business activities that are unhampered by corruption and red tape in government.

Second, healing the deep divisions within Philippine society.

Third, working for clean and honest elections in 2004.

Nine months later, on October 4, 2003, Arroyo gave in to her supporters’ requests to seek a full-term presidency. Arroyo stated that her change of heart was for a higher cause and that she cannot ignore the call to further serve the country. Many people welcomed this development, among which was His Emincence Cardinal Sin, saying that she needs more time to implement her projects, and that she would be the strongest contender against a likely candidacy by actor Fernando Poe, Jr.

Fernando Poe, Jr.'s candidacy

Months before the elections, members of the opposition were encouraging actor Fernando Poe, Jr., a close friend of former president Joseph Estrada to run for president. Poe was very popular with the masses and it was widely believed that he would be a sure winner if he ran for president.

On November 27, 2003, Poe announced during a press conference held at the Manila Hotel that he would run for president.

However, on January 9, 2004, Victorino X. Fornier (a private citizen) filed a case against Poe and the COMELEC, saying that Poe was not eligible to run as he was not a natural-born Filipino before the COMELEC. On 23 January, the COMELEC dismissed the petition for lack of merit. On February 10, Fornier finally filed the case to the Supreme Court, seeking for Poe to be disqualified from the race. His case was later merged with cases filed by Maria Jeanette C. Tecson, and Felix B. Desiderio, Jr., and by Zoilo Antonio G. Velez.

Death of Lawyer Maria Jeanette Tecson

2007年9月28日、午後8時30分、シニア監督サンフランシスコUyami、パシグの上の警察署長と述べ弁護士マリアTecson、40は、（の状態で死体で発見されていた死後硬直リッチモンドホテル、サン・ミゲル・アベニューの部屋204の内側） 、パシグ（喉のスリットと手首の切り傷）。^[1]はマリアジャネットTecson、Zoiloベレス（に昇格控訴裁判所 判事）とビクトリーFornierはフェルナンド・ポーに対する失格ケースを提出し、ジュニア彼女は、ポーがから生まれた主張結婚生活、そしてポーの間、という出生証明書は、 1939年、彼の日付ました両親のアランポーとアメリカ人の母親のベッシーケリーは1940年まで結婚しませんでした。^[1]

On March 3, the Supreme Court, said in its decision^[2] that for lack of jurisdiction and prematurity, and ruling that Poe's father, Allan F. Poe would have been a Filipino citizen by virtue of the en masse Filipinization enacted by the Philippine Bill of 1902. Also, even if Poe had not been a natural-born Filipino citizen, he could not be held guilty of having made a material misrepresentation in his certificate of candidacy.

Eddie Gil's candidacy

The Commission on Elections originally affirmed the candidacies of six people for the president. The sixth person running for president was Eduardo "Eddie" Gil, a known Marcos loyalist. The party of Eduardo Villanueva filed a petition with the COMELEC seeking to disqualify Eddie Gil on the basis of him being a nuisance candidate, his incapacity to mount a nationwide campaign, and that because he was running with the aim to confuse voters because of their similar names.

エディー・ギルは、数十億ドルの純資産を持つ国際的な銀行家であると主張しています。彼の大統領職の綱領は、選出されてから最初の100日以内にすべてのフィリピン人を億万長者にすることを約束しました。彼はまた、自分のポケットから数兆ペソに相当するフィリピンの債務を返済することを約束した。これは、特にキャンペーンの出撃中にホテルの請求書を支払うために彼が発行した小切手が返送された最近の事件の後、広く嘲笑されました。

LDP分割

The Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino party (LDP) would form the core of the main opposition party, the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP). However, members of the party disagreed on which person to support for president. Panfilo Lacson, a member of the party, advanced his candidacy for president but was not considered by Edgardo Angara, the president of the party. Angara supported Fernando Poe, Jr. Together with the party's secretary-general Agapito "Butz" Aquino, Lacson gathered the support of some members of the party and went ahead with his candidacy. The LDP was subsequently polarized between those supporting Angara and Poe, and those for Lacson and Aquino.

By then, Poe and Lacson have both filed their certificates of candidacies. According to the rules of candidacy, every presidential candidate must have a political party to back him or her. With the obvious split within the ranks of the LDP, and with no signs that the two factions would come to an agreement, the COMELEC decided to informally split the party into the Aquino and the Angara wings. Lacson then ran under the LDP - Aquino Wing, and Poe under the LDP - Angara Wing, which would later become the KNP.

During the campaign period, there had been numerous unification talks between the two factions. The opposition saw the need to become united under one banner to boost their chances of winning the presidential election against the organized political machinery of Arroyo. The plans of unification did not materialize due to the stubbornness of both Poe and Lacson. Lacson wanted Poe to concede to him and run as his vice-presidential candidate while the supporters of Poe wanted Lacson to back out from his candidacy and instead support Poe, citing his low performance in the surveys.

COMELEC's move for an automated elections

Elections in the Philippines have always been a manual process with the results for national positions often being announced more than a month after election day. An attempt to rectify this was done by the Commission on Elections by automating the process of counting the votes. More than 30 billion pesos were spent in acquiring counting machines that were never used in this elections because of numerous controversies and political opposition.

Parties and coalitions

This election has seen strong shifts of alliances and new parties as candidates switched allegiances. The two major coalitions seen in this elections were the K-4 (Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan sa Kinabukasan), of the administration, and the KNP (Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino), the united opposition.

Politics of the Philippines
Government Constitution of the Philippines Charter Change Laws and legal codes Taxation
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Elections General 2016 2019 2022 Barangay 2013 2018 2022
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2004年のフィリピン大統領選挙と副大統領選挙は2004年5月10日月曜日に開催されました。大統領選挙では、現大統領グロリア・マカパガル・アロヨが6年間の大統領任期を勝ち取り、マージンは100万票強でした。主要な対戦相手、非常に人気のある映画俳優フェルナンドポージュニア。

The elections were notable for several reasons. This election first saw the implementation of the Overseas Absentee Voting Act of 2003 (see Wikisource), which enabled Filipinos in over 70 countries to vote. This is also the first election since the 1986 People Power Revolution where an incumbent president ran for re-election. Under the 1987 Constitution, an elected president cannot run for another term. However, Arroyo was not elected president, but instead succeeded ousted President Joseph Estrada, who was impeached with charges of plunder and corruption in 2000 and later convicted of plunder (but received conditional pardon from Arroyo).

Moreover, this was the first time since 1986 that both the winning president and vice president were under the same party/coalition. This election was also held at a period in modern Philippines marked by serious political polarization. This resulted in lesser candidates for the presidential and vice presidential elections compared to the 1992 and 1998 elections.

Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP)

Koalisyon NG Nagkakaisangピリピノ（米国フィリピン人の連合）、またはKNPは、統一野党の連合です。その旗手は、大統領のフェルナンド・ポー・ジュニアと副大統領のローレン・レガルダ上院議員です。この連立の主要政党は、フィリピン民主の闘い（LDP-アンガラウィング）、PDP-ラバン、フィリピン民主の闘いです。 LDPの分裂は、FPJとピンラクソンの間の頑固さが原因です。特に元大統領ジョセフ・エストラーダと元ファーストレディーのイメルダ・マルコスの支援を受けて。この連立の下での他の主要な政党は、エストラーダの人民運動党（PMP、フィリピン大衆党）です。

Alyansa ng Pag-asa

The third major coalition running in this election is the Alyansa ng Pag-asa (Alliance of Hope), This coalition fielded Raul Roco for president and Herminio Aquino for vice-president. The three major parties supporting this coalition are Roco's Aksyon Demokratiko (Democratic Action), former Defense Sec. Renato de Villa's Reporma Party, and Lito Osmeña's Promdi (Probinsya Muna [Provinces First] Development Party). The three parties were the ones that bolted out of the People Power Coalition.

Bangon Pilipinas Movement (BPM)

Bangonピリピナス（上昇は、フィリピン）移動はブロの政党です。エディビジャヌエバ。それは主にボランティアで構成されており、その大多数はビジャヌエバのイエス・イズ・ロード教会から来ました（ビラヌエバは政教分離に関する質問を防ぐために、立候補を提出する前に教会を辞任しました）。

Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino（LDP）（Aquino Wing）

これは、自民党のパンフィロ・ラクソンの支持者で構成されていました。

Partido Isang Bansa、Isang Diwa

これはエディー・ギルの組織でした。ギルは迷惑な候補者と見なされ、大統領選挙から失格となったが、党は他の役職に就く資格を得た。

Opinion polling

President

Vice President

Election results

The official results of the election were released in staggered dates with most winners in local elective positions declared within two weeks from the May 10 election date. The winners in the Senatorial and Party-list Representative elections were declared on May 24, with the exception of the 12th senator which was announced on June 3. The results of the presidential and vice-presidential races were finalized by the Congress on June 20, more than a month after the elections. Out of the 43,895,324 registered voters, about 33.5 million ballots were cast giving a voter turn-out of 76.34%.

Shown below are the official tallies of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential races.

President

According to NAMFREL results, Poe won in five provinces: Sultan Kudarat, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan and Lanao del Sur, which were won by Arroyo in the official congressional canvass. Meanwhile, Arroyo won in Davao del Norte, which was won by Poe in the official congressional canvass.^[15]

内訳

副社長

州/市ごとの副大統領選挙の結果。

PETケースNo.003、Legardav。DeCastro、2008年1月18日

2008年1月18日には、21ページの中解像度シニア正義で書いた、レオナルド・クイサンビング、フィリピンの最高裁判所は、大統領選挙裁判所（PET）として動作する、上院議員却下ローレン・レガーダに対しての選挙抗議ノリ・デ・カストロ。 3つの理由が判断を支持しました：最初に、PETは聴覚委員と元選挙管理委員会の勧告を承認しました (Comelec) Chair retired SC Justice Bernardo P. Pardo that “the pilot-tested revision of ballots or re-tabulation of the certificates of canvass would not affect the winning margin of the protestee in the final canvass of the returns, in addition to the ground of abandonment or withdrawal by reason of Protestant’s candidacy for, election and assumption of the office Senator of the Philippines;” second, Legarda's failure to pay the P 3.9 million ($1 = P 40) revision of ballots (in 124,404 precincts) fee despite court extension under Rule 33 of the PET; and third, jurisprudence of Defensor Santiago v. Ramos, teaches that Legarda "effectively abandoned or withdrawn her protest when she ran in the Senate, which term coincides with the term of the Vice-Presidency 2004-2010." Meanwhile, Noli De Castro上のテレビに述べた：「これは真実の勝利である真実、私は正々堂々とを獲得したことを、私は人々の真の声をエコー用の最高裁判所に感謝非常に私は、私たちの圧倒的な任務を受けたことを確信した最初から。。。副大統領としての人々。」レガルダは、やがて再審理の申立てを提出すると述べた。^{[16] [17]}

出口調査

During and immediately after the elections, exit polls were conducted by various organizations including the Social Weather Stations. According to "The SWS 2004 Day of Election Survey: Final Exit Poll Scores Excluding Blank Answers", released by the SWS on 19 May 2004, the national vote percentages are: GMA 45%, FPJ 34%, Lacson 10%, Roco 6%, Villanueva 5% (slightly different numbers from May 11; error margin 2%, n = 4,445)."^[18]

These results are affirmed when compared to the NAMFREL Quick Count as of May 21, as tabulated in "Comparison of ABS-CBN/SWS Exit Poll 2004 Results (as of May 17, 9 am; excluding No Answer) and NAMFREL Quick Count as of May 21 1:00 p.m. (Report #63)".^[19] The NAMFREL Quick Count shows GMA at 40.4%, FPJ at 36.5%, Lacson at 10.8%, Roco at 6.2%, and Villanueva at 6.1%.^[19]

It is notable in light of the subsequent Hello Garci scandal how exit polling revealed the candidates' performance in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. To wit, the SWS exit poll shows that GMA won only 44% of ARMM while FPJ won 50% (in short, 44–50); the NAMFREL Quick Count showed a score of 34.3-56.5.^[19] However, the final official COMELEC Canvass showed a result of 62% vs. 31% in favor of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.^[19]

The SWS also published the number of registered voters per region as of April 28, 2004—or just a week before the elections—for the purpose of comparing their sample sizes with the actual number of voters. The ARMM had 1,057,458 voters.^[20]

However, recall that in the final official COMELEC canvass, FPJ won 31% of ARMM votes. If he had won 100% of ARMM, he could gain only 69% more of the ARMM voters, or 729,646 votes. Given that the final difference between GMA and FPJ was 1,123,576 votes, GMA would still have won the election by a total of 393,930 votes.

Even if FPJ won 100% of the ARMM, GMA would still have won. So great was GMA's lead, that even if they padded ARMM voter rolls so that it would show 1.5 million voters, 69% of that would only be 1.035 million votes, still not enough to overcome the 1.123-million vote lead.

この結果は、実際には、SWSによっても実施された選挙前の世論調査の傾向と一致しています。選挙の2週間強前の4月23日、SWSは世論調査を発表し、SWSレポートの見出し自体は歴史的に重要でした。「SWS 2004年4月10〜17日調査：ロコが枯渇し、有権者はGMAに行くと未定」。^[21]レポートの最初の行はゲームを放棄します：「ラウル・ロッコの海外への突然の出発は彼の投票力のほぼ半分を犠牲にし、グロリア・マカパガル・アロヨがスリムなリードを獲得することを可能にしました...」^[21]そのリードを逆転させることはできませんでした：2004年5月8日または選挙のちょうど2日前に発表された前回の選挙前SWS世論調査（5月1日から4日まで実施）で、「GMAはFPJを7％リード」、37％から30％、12％未定。^[22]

有権者の人口統計

出典： 5月11日にSocial Weather Stationsが実施した出口調査では、丸め誤差のために合計99％（許容誤差：2％）^[23]

Official Congressional canvass

Arroyo	Poe
Arroyo won in Western and Central Visayas, western parts of northern Luzon, northern Mindanao and in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. Poe, on the other hand, won in Eastern Visayas, Metro Manila, southern Luzon, eastern parts of Northern Luzon and southern Mindanao. Arroyo is the first candidate to win the presidency despite losing the Lingayen-Lucena corridor.

Under the constitution, the Congress is mandated to become the National Board of Canvassers for the top two positions, the president and the vice-president. Tallying in the 216,382 precincts nationwide are submitted in Election Returns that are forwarded to the municipal and city board of canvassers. These are then tabulated and forwarded to the provincial board of canvassers which prepare the 176 Certificates of Canvass (CoC). These CoCs were forwarded to the joint session of the Congress at the Batasang Pambansa in Quezon City in May 2004.

Senators and representatives from the administration and opposition have debated heatedly on the procedure of counting the CoCs. The traditional way of counting the certificates, as used in the 1992 and 1998 elections, was to appoint a joint committee consisting of seven senators and seven representatives. Many opposition legislators, notably, Cong. Didagen Dilangalen of Maguindanao, opposed this traditional method as unconstitutional saying that it should be the whole Congress, not a committee, who should count the votes. Part of the argument was that "power delegated cannot be further delegated", referring to the delegation of counting to a committee. The proposal of some legislators was for the whole Congress to sit in a joint session counting each and every single Certificate of Canvass.

The debates and deliberations for the rules of canvassing were finished by the Congressional joint session on May 28. The rules decided were very similar to the ones used in the 1992 and 1998 elections, which called for a joint committee to act as the National Board of Canvassers. The notable difference is the increase of the number of committee members from 14 to 22, this time consisting of 11 senators and 11 representatives. The composition of the committee was also announced by the Senate President, Franklin Drilon, and the Speaker of the House, Jose de Venecia. The composition was immediately lambasted by the Opposition; the House portion of the committee consisted of 9 administration representatives and 2 opposition. The Poe camp called for a more equal representation for all the involved political parties in the committee, despite the appointed commission mirroring the current composition of the House: there are 190 administration representatives in a 220-seat House.

The official canvassing by the Congressional Joint Committee started on June 4, a little less than one month after election day. Canvassing was done in a slow pace, averaging about 12 Certificates of Canvass per day, as the Opposition accused Administration politicians of railroading the canvass. The Opposition lawyers wanted to question the validity of 25 CoCs, especially in those areas where Arroyo posted a wide margin over Poe. They wanted the committee to examine the Statement of Votes at the municipal level and even down to the Election Returns at the precinct level to prove their claim that the Certificates of Canvass have been tampered with in favor of Arroyo. Administration lawyers contend that the committee is not the proper place to lodge complaints of fraud and that the Opposition should go to the Presidential Election Tribunal (the Supreme Court) after the winner has been proclaimed.

も参照してください

• こんにちはガルチスキャンダル
• 選挙管理委員会
• フィリピンの政治
• フィリピンの選挙
• フィリピン大統領
• フィリピン第13回大会

外部リンク

一般サイト

• フィリピン大統領プロジェクト
• フィリピン選挙管理委員会
• 自由選挙のための全国運動（NAMFREL）

メディアサイトと記事

• Eleksyon 2004（メディアウェブサイト）
• 4つの出口調査には3つの異なる勝者がいます-フィリピンデイリーインクワイアラー
• Proberz出口調査：FPJ勝者
• 議会は勧誘規則を承認します-フィリピンデイリーインクワイアラー
• SWSは出口調査で誤りを犯したことを認めている-フィリピンデイリーインクワイアラー

その他

• 選挙世論調査について：パートIV誰がより良いか-SWSまたはパルスアジア？-ロムラA.ビロラ博士
• 2002年12月30日走らないつもりだと宣言するアロヨ演説
• PETケースNo.003、レガルダvs.デカストロ

参考文献